The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has recently published the data on banks' foreign exchange sales and settlements as well as the foreign-related receipts and payments via banks for July 2016. The SAFE press spokesperson answered media questions on recent cross-border capital flows.
Q: The pressure from cross-border capital outflows has been relieved in the first half of this year. What would you say about July?
A: China's cross-border capital flows fluctuated within a normal range in July. First, the deficit in banks' foreign exchange sales and settlements represented a month-on-month increase, but that of non-banking sectors such as enterprises and individuals remained relatively stable. In July, the banking sector recorded a deficit of USD 31.7 billion in foreign exchange sales and settlements, higher than the monthly average of USD 16.3 billion in the second quarter, but lower than the monthly average of USD 41.6 billion in the first quarter. In particular, the non-banking sectors registered a deficit of USD 19.8 billion in foreign exchange sales and settlements, up by 12% month-on-month, but at a low level in the year to date. Second, the non-banking sectors registered a deficit in foreign-related receipts and payments again, but the deficit was low. In July, the deficit was USD 31.9 billion, including a deficit of USD 1.3 billion in foreign exchange receipts and payments. In the first four months, China posted a deficit of USD 20.1 billion, USD 10.5 billion, USD 5.9 billion and USD 2 billion in foreign exchange receipts and payments respectively, but registered surpluses in May and June.
The short-term impact from Britain's exit from the EU and seasonal factors contributed to stronger net demand for foreign exchange in July. In July, Britain's exit from the EU led to volatilities in international financial markets and helped strengthen the dollars but dragged down the RMB exchange rate. Under such circumstances, Chinese market players became less willing to settle foreign exchange. In the month, the ratio of foreign exchange sold by bank customers to foreign-related foreign exchange receipts was 58%, down by 3 percentage points from June. As global markets tended to be stabilized, the supply and demand for foreign exchange in China was less impacted and fell within control. On the other hand, as July is traditionally the month when foreign-funded enterprises remit out profits and overseas listed companies distribute dividends and bonuses, the ROI-related demand for foreign exchange rose, which is also a key cause behind the heavy deficit in foreign exchange sales and settlements of banks themselves who hold overseas listed shares; what's more, as individuals' purchases of foreign exchange for overseas travel and study are high during the summer vacation, foreign exchange purchases under travel went up by 12% month-on-month in July.
Positive factors in favor of the equilibrium of supply and demand for foreign exchange continued to emerge. First, the foreign exchange sales rate, or the ratio of purchases of foreign exchange from banks to the payments of foreign-related foreign exchange was 69% in July, down by 5 percentage points month-on-month. In particular, although individuals' purchases of foreign exchange presented seasonal rises, yet purchases of foreign exchange under travel dropped by 7% year-on-year in the month, indicating stable market sentiment for the moment. Second, foreign exchange financing through certain channels continued to pick up in the month, and the balance of cross-border foreign exchange financing for imports such as refinancing and forward L/C rose by USD 3.4 billion from the end of June, representing the fifth month of bouncing back, and showing enterprises' deleveraging of external debt continued to slow down.
In conclusion, China's cross-border capital flows have fluctuated within a normal range recently, without changing the pattern of mid and long-term stability, and will continue to develop toward a stronger equilibrium between inflows and outflows in the future.
