The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) recently disseminated the data for February 2016 on banks' settlement and sales of foreign exchange and their foreign-related receipts and payments for customers. The press spokesperson of the SAFE answered media questions on recent cross-border capital flows.
Q: Could you brief us on China's recent cross-border capital flows?
A: The pressure from cross-border capital outflows from China has been significantly eased. The deficits in foreign exchange settlement and sales and in foreign-related payments and receipts by the non-banking sectors, companies or individuals, have contracted since the beginning of this year. In February, the non-banking sectors recorded a deficit of USD 35 billion in foreign exchange settlement and sales, down by 50% month on month, or by a daily average of 37% month on month if calculated by trading days after the adjustment of the impact from the Chinese New Year holiday. The non-banking sectors also registered a deficit of USD 30.5 billion in foreign-related payments and receipts, down by a daily average of 39% month on month. In particular, the deficit in foreign-related payments and receipts of foreign exchange was USD 10.5 billion, down by a daily average of 42% month on month.
Chinese market players' adjustment of their structure of assets and liabilities in domestic and foreign currencies has become smoother. On the one hand, efforts have been made to steadily encourage people to hold more foreign exchange. The balance of foreign exchange deposits grew by USD 8.3 billion in February, which was down by USD 11.3 billion month on month. On the other hand, companies slowed down debt servicing. For example, the balance of cross-border financing for imports dropped by USD 2.5 billion in February, which was down by USD 7.2 billion month on month.
The changes in domestic and external market environments have helped ease the pressure from cross-border capital outflows. First, global financial markets are being stabilized after fluctuations. The US dollar index has sustained small fluctuations after being downgraded at the end of January, and the VIX that reflects market aversion has dropped from the peak in mid-February. Second, the domestic RMB exchange rate has stayed stable. In February, the RMB exchange rate against a basket of currencies fluctuated slightly, but the central parity rate of the RMB against the USD and domestic and overseas trading prices rose, and the spread between the CNY and the CNH further narrowed, indicating market players' weaker desire to buy foreign exchange. In addition, no adjustment has been made to the foreign exchange administration policy except the requirement on the authenticity and compliance of foreign exchange transactions has been highlighted to curb speculations, which stabilizes market sentiment.
China's cross-border capital flows are expected to stay stable in the near future. China will continue to register a large trade surplus and heavy use of foreign capital, and companies' external debt will be more stable after more than one year's deleveraging. As for internal and external environments, market expectations of the Fed's interest rate hikes have been lowered recently, and the Fed's adjustment of the monetary policy, if meeting market expectations, will be favorable for stabilizing international financial markets and capital flows. China's GDP growth target for 2016 is 6.5%-7%, which is high at the global level, indicating the fundamentals for attracting inflows of foreign capital have not changed.
