-
为提升外汇政策解读传导服务效能，了解辖内重点企业生产经营状况和外汇政策诉求，引导企业树立汇率风险中性理念，扎实推进“我为群众办实事”实践活动，近日，瓦房店市支局组织辖内行业龙头企业召开座谈会。石化、轴承制造等5个行业的9家企业代表和瓦房店市支局分管局领导、外汇工作人员参加了此次会议。 会上，支局分析了辖区跨境收支形势，宣讲了汇率风险中性理念，梳理了企业汇率管理上存在的问题，介绍了汇率风险应对措施，发放辅导材料，引导企业开展汇率风险管理。 在听取企业的介绍和诉求后，支局提出四点意见：一是树立汇率风险中性理念，提高企业收益水平；二是增强风险意识，做好风险评估；三是加强财务管理，优化币种配置；四是提高主业发展能力，促进企业健康发展。 2021-08-11/dalian/2021/0811/1366.html
-
“1”为一事一议答好“个性题”：针对企业面临的个性化问题，通过集体审议，找准问题症结，提出解决措施，为企业提供特事特办、一企一议服务。 “3”为三项制度答好“共性题”：建立外汇联络员制度，为辖区20家重点企业配备外汇联络员，点对点开展辅导，重点解决涉外企业面临的外汇政策和外汇业务不清楚的问题；建立常态化宣讲培训制度，聚焦涉外企业普遍关注的外汇便利化政策、跨境融资政策和业务、汇率风险管理等内容，组织开展“优服务、解难题、促发展”系列宣讲培训活动；建立大走访制度，由局领导带队，深入基层一线，参与外汇业务办理流程体验、问需市场主体，建立走访发现问题清单，健全督导评估及工作通报两项机制，推动涉外企业反馈问题逐一解决到位。 2021-08-11/sichuan/2021/0811/1664.html
-
达州市中心支局召开以“优服务、解难题、促发展”为主题的贸易投资促进与汇率避险政策宣讲暨银企对接会，通过现场政策和产品宣讲、协议签约、答疑解难等方式帮助涉外企业解决生产经营过程中遇到的难题，以实际行动推动成渝双城经济圈建设，为创建万达开川渝统筹发展示范区增添助力。工行达州分行现场与多家涉外企业签订了汇率避险产品协议，切实提升企业风险中性理念，优化金融外汇服务，促进达州市涉外经济高质量发展。 2021-08-12/sichuan/2021/0812/1665.html
-
俄罗斯农业部发出的公告显示，今年上半年，俄罗斯销往海外的农产品累计总值高达150亿美元，与去年同期相比上涨了18%。2021年上半年，中国从俄罗斯购进的农产品价值累计高达19亿美元，中国成为俄罗斯农产品最大“金主”，其次是土耳其，该国向俄罗斯进口的农产品同比增长5%，累计总值达18亿美元，韩国排在第三位。（文章来源：中俄资讯网） 2021-08-12/heilongjiang/2021/0812/1661.html
-
The State Council Information Office (SCIO) held a press conference at 4:00 PM on Friday, July 23, 2021. Wang Chunying, Deputy Administrator and Press Spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), was invited to share the data on foreign exchange receipts and payments for the first half of 2021 and answer questions from the press. Xing Huina, Deputy Head of the Press Bureau of the SCIO and Spokesperson for the SCIO: Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Welcome to the press conference of the SCIO. Today, we are pleased to welcome Ms. Wang Chunying, Deputy Administrator and Press Spokesperson of the SAFE. She will share with us the data on China’s Foreign Exchange Receipts and Payments for the first half of 2021, and answer the questions of your concern. Now I will give the floor to Ms. Wang. 2021-07-23 16:00:07 Wang Chunying, Deputy Administrator and Press Spokesperson of the SAFE: Good afternoon, everyone! Welcome to today’s press conference. First, I’d like to brief you on the foreign exchange receipts and payments situations for the first half of 2021. Then I will take your questions. In the first half of 2021, facing lingering challenges of COVID-19 around the world, the recovery of the global economy was still uneven, and the international financial market was in a state of complexity and volatility. China’s economy has sustained with a stable recovery, showing a steady and sound growth momentum. China’s foreign exchange market operated soundly on general. The renminbi exchange rate went through ups and downs but remained basically stable within a reasonable and balanced range. The foreign receipts and payments transactions became more active, and the foreign exchange market is expected to be in a stable and orderly manner. According to the data on foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks in the first half of this year, banks settled US$1.2101 trillion and sold US$1.0745 trillion in foreign exchange, representing a surplus of US$135.6 billion, or in renminbi terms, banks settled 7.8 trillion yuan and sold 7.0 trillion yuan, recording a surplus of 876 billion yuan. As showed by the data on banks’ foreign-related receipts and payments on behalf of customers, in US dollar terms, banks handled foreign-related receipts of US$2.8419 trillion and payments of US$2.6529 trillion for customers, representing a surplus of US$189 billion, or in renminbi terms, banks handled foreign-related receipts of 18.4 trillion yuan and payments of 17.2 trillion yuan for customers, recording a surplus of 1.2228 trillion yuan. 2021-07-23 16:08:32 Wang Chunying: China’s foreign exchange receipts and payments showed the following features in the first half of 2021: First, a surplus was registered in both foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks and cross-border receipts and payments. In the first half of this year, foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks reached a surplus of US$135.6 billion and banks’ foreign-related receipts and payments on behalf of customers reached a surplus of US$189 billion. This was mainly attributed to the relatively high level of receipts and settlements of foreign exchange under trade in goods, which reflected steady improvement of the domestic economy and the orderly resumption of work and production. Data shows that, in the second quarter, the surplus for foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks was US$47 billion and that for banks’ foreign-related receipts and payments on behalf of customers was US$67.7 billion. Second, the foreign exchange sales rate was generally stable, and the cross-border financing by enterprises increased steadily. In the first half of this year, the foreign exchange sales rate, the measurement of customers’ desire to buy foreign exchange, or the ratio of foreign exchange purchased by customers from banks to foreign-related foreign exchange payments made by customers, stood at 64%, slightly down by 0.7% from the second half of 2020 and remained stable overall. In terms of foreign exchange financing, by the end of June, the outstanding domestic foreign exchange loans rose by US$37.7 billion from the level at the end of 2020, with a rather steep growth curve in the first quarter and a flat one in the second quarter. In the first half of this year, the balance of foreign currency financing for cross-border trade such as import refinancing and forward L/C increased by US$32.2 billion, generally in line with the high level of foreign trade. Third, the foreign exchange settlement rate slightly increased and enterprises’ foreign exchange deposits rose up. The foreign exchange settlement rate, the measurement of customers’ desire to settle foreign exchange, or the ratio of foreign exchange sold by customers to banks to foreign exchange received by customers, reached 67%, slightly up by 2% from the second half of 2020. By the end of June, the balance of domestic foreign exchange deposits held by enterprises and other market participants increased by US$65.8 billion compared with the end of 2020, mainly due to the growth in foreign exchange receipts from trade in goods. 2021-07-23 16:08:44 Wang Chunying: Fourth, transactions of foreign exchange derivatives built up, and enterprises have shown stronger awareness of risk neutrality. In the first half of 2021, the foreign exchange derivatives, such as forwards and options, used by enterprises to manage exchange rate risks saw a growth of 94% year-on-year, 69 percentage points higher than that of the foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks in the same period. This growth rate was quite remarkable, as it pushed the hedging ratio of enterprises up to 22.8%. The hedging ratio of enterprises, as we previously explained, is the ratio of derivatives trades to spot trades plus derivatives trades by banks for their customers, in other words, the percentage of derivatives trades in the total foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks for their customers. We assume that the rising hedging ratio indicates stronger awareness of risk aversion, better adaptability to exchange rate fluctuations and enhanced risk-neutral business philosophy among enterprises. Fifth, foreign exchange reserves were basically stable. By the end of June, the volume of China’s foreign exchange reserves registered US$3.214 trillion, equivalent to that at the end of last year. Foreign exchange reserves fluctuated to some extent in the first half of 2021, primarily driven by the combined factors of exchange rate conversion and asset price changes. The above are the five characteristics and the major statistics I’d like to share with you on China’s foreign exchange receipts and payments in the first half of this year. Next, I will answer your questions. 2021-07-23 16:12:55 Xing Huina: Thanks for your information, Ms. Wang. The floor is now open for questions. Please tell us your news agency before raising your questions. 2021-07-23 16:20:01 CCTV: What is your comment on the changes in China’s foreign exchange market in the first half of this year? Where will the market go in the second half of this year in your opinion? Thank you. 2021-07-23 16:34:35 Wang Chunying: Since the beginning of this year, the foreign exchange market has been operating generally soundly, market sentiment has been basically stable, exchange rate expectations have been reasonably differentiated, foreign exchange transactions have been rational and orderly, and the foreign exchange market has maintained in good order. The most prominent feature was reflected in the renminbi exchange rate, which was generally stable within the balanced and reasonable range despite stronger ups and downs. I’d like to share with you about our observation and understanding from two aspects. First, renminbi exchange rate experienced stronger two-way fluctuations. On the first trading day of the first half of the year, the spot renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated to 6.4620. The trend remained relatively stable in January-February. It depreciated by 1.5% in March, appreciated by 3.1% in April and May, and depreciated by 1.6% in June. By the end of June, it closed at 6.4612 on its last trading day, eight basis points short of 6.4620 at the start of the year. One cent is for 100 basis points, that is to say, eight basis points mean that the rate has basically returned to the original level. Therefore, in the first half of the year, the ups and downs of the renminbi exchange rate were quite obvious. We see some implications in it. First of all, two-way fluctuations reflect the complexity and unpredictability of changes in the international market. This year, with COVID-19 still spreading around the world, the recovery of the global economy is uneven, and the trend of inflation and employment in major developed economies are not clear, which has added to the uncertainty in the international financial market. Take the US dollar index as an example. It was up 2.6% in March on rising US inflation expectations. In April and May, it dropped 3.4% as the US economic recovery fell short of market expectations. In June, everyone noticed that the signals released by the Fed’s meeting on interest rates were “hawkish” and that the recovery of the US economy was gaining speed. As a result, the US dollar index turned to rise by 2.7%. Obviously, the repeatedly changing main situation of the international market also has impacts on the exchange rates of various currencies. Therefore, the stronger two-way fluctuations of renminbi do reflect the complexity and unpredictability of changes in the international market. In addition, the two-way fluctuations of renminbi reflect the progress of the exchange rate marketization in China. In the first half of this year, according to our calculation, the historical volatility of the renminbi against the US dollar was 3.1%, closing to currencies of developed economies such as euro, sterling and yen and showing strengthening elasticity. Under the market-oriented adjustment mechanism, the two-way fluctuations of the renminbi exchange rate are quite timely and sufficient, accurately reflecting the changes in the international market and in domestic foreign exchange supply and demand. It was the first prominent feature of the renminbi exchange rate in the first half of this year. Second, the renminbi exchange rate has remained basically stable within a reasonable and balanced range. In recent years, there has been consensus that more elasticity has been seen in renminbi, but its overall fluctuations are still lower than that of emerging economies’ currencies, not to speak of some currencies with frequent sharp fluctuations. The renminbi has shown relatively good stability in value, and we also have the following comments in this aspect. Firstly, this reflects the momentum of long-term growth of the Chinese economy. According to the recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMI of China’s manufacturing industry in June was 50.9%, which has been in the boom range for 16 consecutive months. China’s GDP grew by 12.7% in the first half of the year. China’s economy has recovered steadily, with an improving structure and significantly enhanced vitality. Economic fundamentals have played a very important role in stabilizing the renminbi exchange rate and boosting market confidence. Therefore, the fact that renminbi exchange rate remains basically stable within the proper range reflects this characteristics, or is supported by this. Secondly, it shows China’s basically balanced international balance of payments. In recent years, the international balance of payments has maintained a generally balanced pattern and it has been continuously consolidated. For example, the current account surplus as a percentage of GDP has remained within 2% for five consecutive years, which is both a surplus and within a reasonable range. In the first half of this year, such a trend continued. The current account was still within a reasonable range, and cross-border capital flew in and out, in balance. Therefore, foreign exchange reserves are basically stable. According to the data we have released, in the first quarter, the current account had a surplus of US$69.4 billion, and the financial account excluding reserve assets had a deficit of US$34.5 billion, so the capital flow-in-and-out was basically kept in balance. Therefore, this is also a basis in terms of market supply and demand for renminbi to remain stable. This trend will continue in the second half of the year. As we just mentioned, the supporting factors that enable the foreign exchange market and the renminbi exchange rate to show these characteristics and trends still exist, and the Chinese economy is still improving in the long run. In addition, the reform and opening up are constantly advancing, and the balance of payments operation continues to develop steadily. These factors provide good support for the stable development of the foreign exchange market. Of course, the exchange rate will be affected by many factors at home and abroad, and some international uncertainties and unstable factors still exist. Therefore, the renminbi exchange rate will still go up and down but will be basically stable within a reasonable range. Thank you. 2021-07-23 16:34:48 Phoenix TV: Recently, the timing of the Fed’s plan to adjust its monetary policy has become the focus of market attention. How will China be affected in its cross-border capital flows if the Fed starts to taper its bond-buying program or raise interest rates? Thank you. 2021-07-23 16:37:54 Wang Chunying: Thanks. You raised a hot issue. Generally speaking, the Fed’s balance sheet reduction and interest rate hike will boost the interest rate and exchange rate of the US dollar, which will have some impact on international capital flows, especially the cross-border capital flows in emerging economies. Recently, with the economic recovery and high inflation in the US, there have been increasing market expectations for the return of normal monetary policy by the Fed. We believe that the adjustment of the Fed’s monetary policy will indeed have more impact on the cross-border capital flow of economies outside the US, especially emerging ones, but the impact on different economies will vary. China as a relatively large emerging market, and in the view of this, we have compared China’s situation with that of many emerging economies in three aspects: first, the real economy; second, the financial market; and third, the balance of payments. From the above analysis, we believe that China has obvious advantages in dealing with external changes, so the impact of future Fed policy adjustments on China’s cross-border capital flows should be generally controllable. In terms of the real economy, China has a clear lead in economic recovery and the epidemic prevention and control situation is generally stable, which is obvious to all. According to the World Bank’s forecast in June, China’s GDP is expected to grow 8.5 percent this year, 3.1% higher than that of developed economies and 2.5% higher than that of emerging economies. The growth rate would be the highest among G20 economies. Recently, the accelerated vaccination process has laid a very good foundation for economic stability and recovery. In addition, some macro indicators also present many supporting factors. For example, the consumer price index is relatively stable. In addition, the macro leverage ratio, which we are more concerned about, has also been on a steady decline. All these show that the fundamentals of China’s economy are sound and such a solid foundation can help withstand external shocks. At the financial market level, the price-quality ratios of renminbi assets are relatively high, and demands for renminbi assets are stronger than other emerging economies in global assets allocation. At present, Chinese stocks have relatively low P/E ratios compared with those in developed markets and most emerging economies, so their investment value is still relatively high. Bonds also have relatively good investment returns. For example, the 10-year treasury bond yield has stabilized at around 3%, significantly higher than that of the bonds in countries with zero or even negative interest rates. At the same time, we also observe the evaluation indicators related to international sovereign credit. China’s sovereign credit risk is relatively low, and the value of the renminbi is stable. All of this show good investment value. 2021-07-23 16:40:04 Wang Chunying: Currently, the proportion of renminbi assets in global assets allocation is higher than that of other emerging economies. According to data recently released by the IMF, at the end of the first quarter, renminbi accounted for 2.45% of global foreign exchange reserves, amounted to US$287.5 billion. This proportion is also higher than before, and now renminbi is the fifth largest official reserve currency in the world. This reflects a need for official allocation. From the perspective of allocation demands among market institutions, the weight of renminbi bonds and stocks, after their inclusion in major international mainstream indexes, also top the emerging economies. Therefore, renminbi assets have relatively high price-quality ratios and obvious growth value. We believe that despite some external changes, the corresponding investors cannot fail to consider these factors, because it is an advantage that cannot be ignored. From the perspective of balance of payments, China maintains a long-term current account surplus, so its external financing needs are relatively low. Because of its current account surplus, China as a whole presents itself as a country with net foreign assets. At the end of the first quarter, China’s net foreign assets reached US$2.1 trillion, of which reserve assets have always been the world’s largest. The private sector also holds a large amount of foreign exchange assets, which can better cope with changes in external liquidity and adjustments to external liabilities. At the same time, the degree of dependence on external financing, that is, the level of external debt, is actually rather low. The current ratio of the balance of external debt to GDP is lower than that of major emerging and developed economies. In addition, with increased elasticity in recent years, the renminbi exchange rate can better play its role as an automatic stabilizer for regulating macroeconomy and balance of payments. From the analysis of these aspects, China’s economy is in an advantageous position for coping with the changes in the external environment. At the same time, we should also see that the fiscal deficit and financial market valuation in the US are both at historical highs, and this, as the market believes, will restrict the speed and pace of the Fed’s monetary policy adjustment. Therefore, the future adjustment of the Fed’s monetary policy may be gradual. Despite the above analysis, we still pay great attention to the risks that the Fed’s monetary policy adjustments may bring, and we will be prepared for them. Thanks. 2021-07-23 16:51:12 China Daily: My question is that, in recent years, the balance of China’s external debt has continued to grow. What is the main driving force behind it? How do you view the future development trend of external debt? Thank you. 2021-07-23 17:08:08 Wang Chunying: Thank you for your question. In recent years, China’s external debt has steadily increased, and this trend is continuing. China’s outstanding foreign debt stood at US$2.5 trillion at the end of March, up 5% from the end of last year. The quarterly growth rate was about the same as the growth rate of each quarter in the past few years. Therefore, the scale of China’s external debt is steadily increasing. You just asked what is the driving force? Let’s look at the composition of the increase in external debt. First, the recent increase in China’s external debt is mainly because foreign investors hold more China’s bonds. Since 2020, foreign purchasers of domestic bonds have accounted for about half of the overall increase in external debt. This is mainly because China’s economy is the first to recover, its bond market continues to open, and renminbi assets yield good returns and have a stronger safe haven status. In this category of foreign debt investors, more than half are foreign central banks and institutions like sovereign wealth funds. The investment targets are mainly bonds issued by government departments, which are relatively stable. We have observed changes in related long-term capital remittances. Since 2019, the foreign exchange market has borne pressures sometimes from supply side and sometimes from demand side, thus the US dollar index sometimes rose and sometimes fell, and so did the renminbi. No matter what the situation is, there has always been an inflow of investment funds since 2019, and there has been a net inflow for 30 consecutive months. Thus, it mainly reflects the choices and needs of foreign investors in diversifying assets allocation and seeking stable income. What’s next? The factors as I just mentioned to attract these investors remain. As a result, foreign investors will continue to invest in our bonds, and the future growth of external debt will be dominated by such funds. In October of this year, China’s treasury bonds will be officially included in the FTSE World Government Bond Index, so that all major international related indexes will include renminbi bonds. At the end of June, foreign investment accounted for 3.1% of the amount of domestic bonds under custody, and there is a large room for future improvement. But at the same time, it will not grow rapidly, because the global economy will recover and external liquidity and interest rates will return to normal. Therefore, the pace of foreign investment in domestic bonds will be more stable, focusing on long-term investment and diversified asset allocation. Second, since last year, the growth of non-resident deposits has accounted for about 30% of the total increase in external debt. Non-resident deposits are mainly attributed to the increase in bank deposits of overseas Chinese-funded enterprises. Many enterprises have listed and issued bonds in Hong Kong and then deposited the raised funds back in domestic commercial banks. For domestic commercial banks, these deposits are passive liabilities rather than those arising from active financing. Under the circumstances of sufficient liquidity in domestic foreign exchanges, commercial banks are more inclined to use this part of the funds abroad, which is generally reflected as “coming from and going to abroad”. Another feature is that, in general, non-resident foreign exchange deposits, except for QFII funds, are not allowed to be settled, and the withdrawal of such deposits will not involve the purchase of foreign exchanges. Therefore, “coming from and going to abroad” does not involve the settlement or purchase of foreign exchanges, and hence has nearly no impact on the net cross-border capital flows and the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. Third, traditional external debt arising from financing, such as loans and trade credits, are generally stable. By the end of March, the balance of this type of external debt remained the same as at the end of 2020, and was lower than the historical high at the end of 2014. It shows that, despite relatively abundant external liquidity, Chinese enterprises have relatively stable expectations. Their cross-border financing is rational and orderly, without any obvious large-scale leveraging up. Fourth, some have asked whether an external debt of US$2.5 trillion is too large and posing too high risks. Some macro indicators show that China has better currency and maturity structures in its external debt and a generally strong ability of repayment. By the end of March, of the total outstanding external debt, renminbi external debt accounted for 43%, an increase of 1.3% from the end of last year, and the mid- and long-term external debt accounted for 45%, maintaining at a relatively high level. In terms of the safety index of external debt, as of the end of last year, debt-to-GDP ratio, debt service ratio and external debt to exports ratio were all within the international safety line, and were lower than the overall level of developed countries and emerging markets. Sometimes people say that there are too many special terms in the field of foreign exchange, so I would like to explain them to you. The debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio of the outstanding external debt at the end of the year to the GDP of the year. The external debt to exports ratio is the ratio of the outstanding external debt at the end of the year to the income from exports of goods and services of the year. The debt service ratio is the ratio of the amount of interest and principal payments of the year to the income from exports of goods and services of the year. Therefore, regardless of the three types of structures just analyzed, or in general, the external debt risk is controllable. We will continue to monitor and pay attention to, especially the changes in currency and structure. We will also focus on guiding market participants to pay attention to risks, strengthen risk awareness, and rationally arrange their own asset-liability structure. This is an answer to your question. Thanks. 2021-07-23 17:08:18 The Paper: Recently, the Executive Meeting of the State Council proposed to study and deepen the work of financial opening-up. What arrangements will SAFE make in this regard? Thanks. 2021-07-23 17:11:09 Wang Chunying: Thanks for your question. In the next step, taking the two-way opening-up of the financial market as focus, SAFE will continue to deepen the reform and opening up in the field of foreign exchange in accordance with the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. I want to share with you in the following aspects. First, we will steadily and orderly promote the capital account opening-up at a high level, improve the foreign exchange management of overseas institutions’ domestic issuance of stocks and bonds, support private equity investment funds in cross-border industrial investment, and expand the pilot projects for qualified domestic limited partners and qualified foreign limited partners, namely the QDLP and QFLP. At the same time, we will promote the reform in foreign debt registration to facilitate cross-border financing of innovative enterprises, and we will launch the pilot project of fund pools with both domestic and foreign currency for multinational enterprises. Second, we will expand the pilot project to facilitate trade receipts and payments. Some regions are now piloting cross-border payments for new forms of trade such as offshore trade, cross-border e-commerce and market procurement. The Executive Meeting of the State Council also proposed to support the development of new forms of trade. Third, we will build an open, diversified and well-functioning foreign exchange market. We will support financial institutions to launch more foreign exchange derivatives that meet market demand. We will further enrich foreign exchange market products and domestic and foreign participants, and constantly improve the infrastructure system of the foreign exchange market. Fourth, we will support innovation in regional opening-up and the development of special regions, and study and implement pilot projects of high-standard opening-up for cross-border trade and investment. This is my answers to your question. In this regard, we will continue to explore and make adjustments and improvements based on market demand and changes. Thanks. 2021-07-23 17:11:48 China News Service: Since the beginning of this year, China has maintained a high surplus in its current account. The COVID-19 has recurred in neighboring countries and the global economic recovery has been uneven. How do you expect China’s current account to change in the future? Thank you. 2021-07-23 17:24:34 Wang Chunying: The COVID-19 can be said to have very direct, significant and immediate impact on the global economy. In the first quarter of last year, China’s current account was in deficit. However, our economy recovered quickly. In coordinating epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development, we have achieved very good results. Since the second quarter of last year, the balance of current account has turned into a surplus and increased against the trend. At present, the epidemic situation in neighboring countries is repeated and the global economic recovery is uneven. In the first quarter of this year, China’s current account still recorded a small surplus. We have already released some preliminary data on trade in goods and services for the second quarter. Based on the data, we have made some forecasts. The current account surplus should remain at a reasonable scale in the first half of the year and for some time in the future. We will show you the composition of the current account balance and the future trend item by item. In the first half of this year, the trade surplus in goods has further expanded, and is likely to stably grow in the future. Customs statistics show that, in comparison to the same period in 2019, the year before the outbreak of COVID-19, exports in goods increased by 30% and imports of goods increased by 27% in the first half of this year, resulting in a surplus of US$251.5 billion, an increase of 42%. At present, the external demand is still picking up, which is conducive to boosting exports. However, export growth may tend to stabilize in the future, in consideration of the fact that production in developed countries is also recovering and the high base of comparison of last year. Meanwhile, domestic demand recovers and international commodity prices remain high. Under such circumstance, imports will also maintain a certain degree of growth. Therefore, the trade surplus in goods may stabilize. This is our view on the main component of the current account–trade in goods. 2021-07-23 17:24:48 Wang Chunying: The trade deficit in service continues to run at a low level, and it will take time to return to the level before the COVID-19. The deficit in the first five months of this year registered US$37.8 billion, which was still at a very low level, as compared to 2019. Among them, the travel account recorded a deficit of US$37.9 billion, down by 60%. This shows that the spread of the epidemic abroad is still imposing a strong restriction on cross-border travels and studying abroad. The deficit of transportation account narrowed by 69% to US$6.9 billion, mainly due to the increase in transportation revenue. Another outstanding feature in case is that there was a deficit of US$12 billion in the account of the use of intellectual property. In the context of the epidemic, the scale of the receipts and payments under this item has increased by 20%, reflecting the win-win results of China’s expansion of international cooperation in the field of intellectual property protection. Looking ahead, although the vaccination in advanced economies is picking up speed, and cross-border study and travels that determine the balance of service trade are expected to restart, but we think that it might be a gradual process. It is expected that the trade deficit in service will remain low in the short term. The income from investment, whether the investment is from or to China, is recovering substantially, but the balance remains stable. In the first five months, income from investments abroad rebounded sharply from 2020 lows. Supported by the steady growth of the domestic economy, income from foreign investment in China has continued to keep well and is at a relatively high level in history. The income from the two-way investment is at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, under the condition that the investment income from foreign exchange reserves remains stable, the balance of investment income account will remain basically stable. The above are our explanations on the major components of the current account and the basic trends of the future. In the longer term, China will accelerate the establishment of a new pattern of development with prioritizing internal flows and interplay between internal and external flows. The foundation for balanced economic development internally and externally will be more solid. All this will lay a very good foundation for the stable operation and basic balance of the current account. Therefore, regardless of the recurrence of the surrounding epidemics and the recovery of the global economy, we have made some possibility analysis accordingly and believe that the balance of current account will remain in a basic equilibrium. 2021-07-23 17:27:41 Hong Kong Economic Herald: In recent years, the two-way fluctuations of the renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar become stronger. What has SAFE done to manage the risks of exchange rate fluctuations? Thanks. 2021-07-23 17:49:28 Wang Chunying: Thank you for your interest in the work of SAFE. I remember, in the last several press conferences, I had mentioned that we attached great importance to the management of exchange rate risks, and gave top priority in our work the promotion of the concept of risk neutrality of exchange rate. Indeed, this year, we have actively supported enterprises to carry out more work on exchange rate hedging. First, we have taken the initiative to strengthen collaboration with the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. We have made concerted efforts on policy support, publicity and training, and this is what we have already started. Second, we have guided branches of SAFE and banks to carry out targeted publicity, training and door-to-door instructions, mainly to help enterprises understand exchange rate hedging policies and how to use exchange rate hedging tools. Third, a column entitled “Corporate Exchange Rate Risk Management” was opened on SAFE’s WeChat public account. In the column, we interpret the concept of exchange rate risk neutrality, explain transaction cases of foreign exchange derivatives, and share the experience of how various enterprises manage exchange rate risk. In addition, we have selected many different cases across the country, whether through banks or branch bureaus, for sharing. This kind of live and tangible cases may be more helpful to enterprises and enable them to better improve their exchange rate risk management. These are the major tasks we have already carried out. Obviously, it seems that our efforts have paid off. There have been some positive changes, and hedging awareness among enterprises was further raised. I just mentioned a figure, the hedging ratio in the first half of this year was 22.8%, up by 7.5% year-on-year. The scale of derivatives transactions by banks for their customers was close to US$600 billion, a substantial increase of 94% over the same period in 2020. In the future, we will continue to push forward previous effective work and create conditions to support enterprises in managing exchange rate risks. First, we will continuously promote the depth and width of the foreign exchange market by opening up wider, with efforts including research on new hedging products that have market demand. Second, we will improve the transparency of the foreign exchange market, with more data released and interpreted, helping enterprises gain in-depth understanding of policies, understand and judge changes in the situation and in turn get better equipped for risk management. Third, we will guide and support banks to further improve their foreign exchange operations, and better serve enterprises to manage foreign exchange risks. Fourth, we will continue to strengthen cooperation with relevant ministries and commissions, and explore policies to better support enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises in exchange rate risk management. This is my answer in respect of the efforts, achievements and plans of our work on exchange rate risk management. Thank you. 2021-07-23 17:49:39 China Radio International: In the first half of this year, China’s foreign-currency bank deposits continued to accumulate and exceeded the US$1 trillion mark in the second quarter. How do you view this? Thanks. 2021-07-23 17:49:55 Wang Chunying: Thank you for your question. This issue has indeed been a cause of widespread concern, and certainly we have also noticed it. In April, the balance of foreign-currency bank deposits had surpassed US$1 trillion. We have made some analysis and judgment on this matter, which I’m glad to share with you. First let’s look at the source: the foreign and domestic entities each have contributed half in the recent increase in the foreign-currency bank deposits. By the end of June, foreign-currency bank deposits exceeded US$1 trillion, of which about one-third were held by foreign non-residents and two-thirds by domestic residents. In terms of growth structure, foreign-currency bank deposits increased by US$129.7 billion in the first half of this year, among which, bank deposits held by foreign non-residents hit US$64 billion, accounting for 49% of the total increase in deposits, while bank deposits held by domestic residents recorded US$65.8 billion, accounting for 51%. This is the explanation for the composition of the US$1 trillion foreign-currency bank deposits, and its increment. The deposits held by foreign non-residents are mainly funds raised and deposited back by overseas Chinese-funded enterprises through overseas IPO and bond issuance, and they have little impact on the net cross-border capital flows and foreign exchange supply and demand. As I mentioned above, in my response to another question, such “coming and going abroad” funds, except for QFII funds, cannot be settled, and their withdrawals do not involve foreign exchange purchases. But this “coming and going abroad” approach is premised on the sufficient liquidity of foreign currencies domestically and the demand for them is not strong. Since the funds are passively deposited, they are basically used overseas by banks. Changes in domestic foreign-currency bank deposits mainly reflect the surplus of trade in goods, which is the main cause of the increment. Historically, foreign-currency bank deposits grew faster when the trade surplus in goods was large, and vice versa. In the first half of this year, the trade surplus in goods was close to US$160 billion, up by 74% year-on-year. Therefore, in general, domestic enterprises have sufficient foreign currency liquidity, which is one reason for the growth of foreign-currency bank deposits. The recent increase in domestic foreign-currency bank deposits also reflects that corporate expectations are very rational. In recent years, the exchange rate expectations of enterprises and other market entities have become stabler, foreign exchange transactions have become more mature, and the operation of domestic and foreign currency funds has become more rational, without forming a particularly strong expectation for unilateral appreciation or depreciation. In the case of the two-way floating of the renminbi exchange rate, enterprises were not impatient to settle their foreign exchange in the renminbi appreciation stage, and this obviously showed that enterprises’ expectations were relatively rational. In addition, the rise in domestic foreign-currency bank deposits has increased the external assets of banks, helping to achieve an autonomous balance of payments. The current account surplus of the corporate sector has not been settled but deposited in banks. Since the beginning of this year, the banking sector has used part of its deposits abroad to increase its net overseas assets. In the balance of payments, since there are some inflows in the current account, i.e. a surplus, and some outflows in the capital and financial accounts, i.e. a deficit, there are no changes in the reserves. Therefore, this part of funds actually contributes to the autonomous balance of payments. In the future, the foreign-currency bank deposits tend to be stable. As production and life at home and abroad are returning to normal, the trade in goods will be more stable. At the same time, the conditions in external financial markets will also undergo some changes. Therefore, the growth rate of foreign-currency bank deposits will be stabilized. Judging from the situation in May and June, the growth rate of foreign-currency bank deposits has gradually slowed down. Finally, SAFE will continue to promote the two-way opening-up of the financial market, so as to help domestic entities make better use of both domestic and international markets and resources, and to better serve the real economy through policy support and adjustment. Thank you. 2021-07-23 17:51:03 Xing Huina: One last question. 2021-07-23 17:51:26 Nihon Keizai Shimbun: With regard to the Pudong New Area of Shanghai, The State Council has proposed to carry out the pilot project for trading of renminbi foreign exchange futures, which may attract more speculative funds. How will the Chinese market regulate speculative funds while advancing these financial liberalization measures? Thank you. 2021-07-23 17:53:48 Wang Chunying: Thanks for your question. Your concern is ours. Like all of you, we have seen the official document issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, which supports the Pudong New Area in carrying out high-standard reform and opening-up and building it into a leading area for socialist modernization. We attach great importance to this. The document did mention the research and exploration of pilot projects for renminbi foreign exchange futures trading at the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center. In this regard, we will earnestly implement the spirit of the document, adhere to the principle of actual needs and risk neutrality, and actively carry out research and promotion on matters related to foreign exchange futures. At the same time, we will also support enterprises to make full use of existing foreign exchange market products to manage exchange rate risks. Regarding to what you just mentioned, I think it is consistent with our principles. SAFE will always focus on cracking down on illegal foreign exchange activities, constantly improve the integrated management framework of “macro-prudence and micro-regulation” and safeguard the order of the foreign exchange market and the national economic and financial security. This is my response to your question. Thanks. 2021-07-23 17:54:21 Xing Huina: Thank you, Ms. Wang. Thank you, friends from the press. This is the end of today’s press conference. 2021-07-23 17:54:35 (The original text is available on www.china.com.cn) Wang Chunying, Deputy Administrator and Press Spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)（photographed by Xu Xiang） Press conference rostrum (photographed by Luan Haijun) 2021-07-23/en/2021/0723/1852.html
-
On the morning of July 26, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) held a video conference on foreign exchange administration for the second half of 2021. The meeting conveyed the study and implementation of the essential arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on economic and financial work. It reviewed the work in the first half of the year and analyzed the economic, financial, and foreign exchange situation at home and abroad. The meeting also carried out research and deployment on key tasks for the second half of the year. Pan Gongsheng, Secretary of the CPC Leadership and Administrator of the SAFE, delivered the work report. Members of the SAFE CPC Leadership and the Chief Accountant also attended the meeting. The meeting believed that, in the year to date, under the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, SAFE has been earnestly implementing the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, ensuring “stability on the six fronts” and “security in the six areas.” It has continuously promoted reforms and opening-up in the foreign exchange sector. SAFE has also effectively maintained the basic stability of the foreign exchange market and China’s economic and financial security. This helped create a favorable foreign exchange market environment for the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC). First, SAFE has promoted high-quality development of Party building. Through thorough study and implementation of the guiding principles in General Secretary Xi Jinping’s Keynote Speech at the Party History Study and Education Mobilization Conference, SAFE has made solid progress in party history study and education, and further promoted the practical activities of “I do practical work for the masses”. The Administration has also launched a series of activities to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC. Led by the political building of the Party, the Administration will step up to further rigorous self-discipline of the Party. Second, SAFE has deepened the reform and opening-up in the foreign exchange sector and facilitated cross-border trade and investment. SAFE has promoted pilot projects to facilitate foreign exchange receipts and payments of trade, improved foreign exchange transactions for individuals, supported the healthy development of new forms of trade, carried out pilot projects to integrate local and foreign currency capital pools for multinational corporations, and enriched the application scenarios of cross-border financial blockchain service platforms. Third, SAFE has achieved positive results in preventing risks of cross-border capital flows. It has strengthened the macro-prudential management and expectation management, and provided guidance to enterprises in establishing the concept of “exchange rate risk neutrality”. SAFE has also effectively addressed breaches of laws and regulations in the foreign exchange field and maintained healthy order in the foreign exchange market. Fourth, SAFE has continuously improved the operation and management of foreign exchange reserves. Foreign exchange reserves have remained stable at around US$3.2 trillion. The meeting stressed that, in the second half of 2021, SAFE should continue to base themselves on the new development stage, implement the new development concept, build a new development pattern, better coordinate development and security, constantly reform and improve the foreign exchange management system and mechanism that are compatible with the new system of a higher-level open economy, and promote the high-quality development of foreign exchange management. The meeting set out the key tasks for foreign exchange administration in the second half of 2021. First, SAFE will step up to comprehensively govern the Party with strict discipline. Through earnest study and implementation of the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech at the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC, SAFE will closely link the study and education of the Party’s history with the work of the foreign exchange management, and make sure the full and effective implementation of “I do practical work for the masses” task list. SAFE will accentuate Party conducts and uphold integrity, perform strict supervision and management of cadres, and build a high-quality and professional foreign exchange management team who are loyal, incorruptible and responsible. Second, SAFE will unswervingly promote reform and opening-up in the foreign exchange field. It will ensure the comprehensive implementation of all the existing facilitation policies and further expand the scope of facilitation pilot projects such as receipts and payments of foreign exchange in trade, cross-border investment by private equity funds, and fund pools with integrated domestic and foreign currency for multinational enterprises. SAFE will also actively support new forms and models of foreign trade, facilitate foreign exchange transactions for individuals, and provide support mechanisms for regional openness and innovation. Third, SAFE will improve the integrated management framework of “macro-prudence and micro-regulation” in the foreign exchange market. It will improve cross-border capital flows by strengthening macro-prudential measures, improve the micro-regulation of the foreign exchange market by transforming the regulatory approach. SAFE will delve into establishing the authenticity check management mechanism mainly with due diligence in advance, monitoring in the process, spot check after the event, and substantive review and exemption with due diligence. SAFE will severely crack down on illegal activities in the foreign exchange field, such as underground banks and cross-border gambling. Fourth, SAFE will deepen reform to “streamline administration and delegate power, improve regulation, and upgrade services”. It will continue to streamline administrative licensing matters, standardize the handling of administrative licensing matters, encourage more foreign exchange administration to be conducted online, and upgrade “Internet + government services”. Fifth, SAFE will improve the ability to operate and manage foreign exchange reserves, promote the capability construction of scientific and technological operation and management, and ensure the safety and flow of foreign exchange reserves, as well as the maintenance and appreciation of their value. Sixth, SAFE will consolidate the essential work of foreign exchange administration. It will strengthen research around the “14th Five-Year” foreign exchange administration reform plan and revision of the Regulations on Foreign Exchange System, build a high-level statistical system of balance of payments, and promote the construction of “digital foreign exchange administration” and “safe foreign exchange administration”. Officials at or above the director level from all departments and subsidiaries of the SAFE attended the meeting in the main venue. Comrades in charge of the Discipline Inspection and Supervision Office of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Commission of Supervision in the PBOC, the Financial Audit Bureau I of the National Audit Office, and relevant departments of the PBOC were invited to attend the meeting. SAFE branches (administrative offices) participated in the meeting at the branch venues. (End) 2021-07-26/en/2021/0726/1853.html
-
李强书记、龚正市长、易纲行长、会满主席，女士们、先生们，同志们、朋友们： 大家上午好！ 很高兴再次参加陆家嘴论坛，与中外同事就共同感兴趣的话题交流看法。 上海是一座充满活力的城市，也是一个不断见证奇迹的地方。去年以来，根据习近平总书记要求，上海市统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展，改革开放迈出更大步伐，国际金融中心建设取得新的进步。最新一期全球金融中心指数（GFCI）排名中，上海保持第三位，与第二位的评分已非常接近。“十四五”时期，金融管理部门将和上海市及国内外金融机构一道，同心协力，开拓创新，共同推动上海金融业实现更深层次改革和更高水平开放！ 2020年以来，为应对百年一遇的疫情大流行，发达国家纷纷推出超级经济刺激计划。在财政猛烈扩张的同时，货币政策达到前所未有的宽松程度。美联储资产负债表已扩张将近一倍，欧央行扩张一多半，日本银行扩张超过四分之一。这些超常规举措，短期内确实起到了稳定市场、稳定人心的作用。但是相伴而来的负面效应则需要全世界各国来共同承担。首先，发达国家的金融资产和房地产价格普遍出现较大幅度上涨。特别是股票市场很快就达到了创纪录的高水平。经常爬山的人都知道，越是陡峭的山峰，上去不易，下来更难。第二，通货膨胀像约定好了一样，如期而至。而且比美欧同事们所预料的幅度要高出一截，至于将要持续的时间似乎也不像许多专家预测的那样短暂。 第三，当财政支出已经在很大程度上靠中央银行印钞来支撑时，就像一架飞机在空中进入自转旋涡，很难由自己顺利改飞出来。2008年前，美联储的资产负债表只有8000多亿美元，如今已将近8万亿美元，而且美国联邦债务与GDP之比已超过二战时期创造的最高记录。第四，世界疫情现阶段还有诸多不确定性，全球产业链和供应链局部受阻或断裂的风险仍然较大。本来最需要各国同舟共济、共克时艰，但还有少数发达国家不断制造麻烦，继续奉行所谓本国优先的单边主义，事实上首先损害其本国人民的利益。例如，对来自中国的产品保留高关税，客观上推动通货膨胀上升更快。第五，面对美欧开闸泄洪产生的溢出效应，新兴市场经济体和发展中国家不得不采取痛苦的应对举措。俄罗斯、土耳其、巴西央行已启动加息，有的发达经济体也开始释放收缩信号。从全球宏观经济来观察，这些政策取向的利弊得失目前还很难作出结论。 中国在强化宏观政策应对时，没有搞“大水漫灌”。一些国家批评中国应对政策力度不够、对全球经济恢复的贡献不足。这显然是出于偏见或误解。事实上，我们的政策力度并不算小。从货币金融政策来看，2020年，银行贷款新增19.6万亿元，增速12.8%，社会融资规模增加35万亿元，增速13.3%，这在世界上是很少有的。通过降低贷款利息和减少服务收费，去年金融系统向实体经济让利1.5万亿元。从财政税收政策看，2020年我国对企业和居民新增减税降费超过2.5万亿元。公共预算赤字率3.7%，加上新增抗疫国债、地方政府专项债、政策性银行额外增加投入等，这些数字合计起来与名义GDP之比已超过10%。更重要的是，我们的应对政策取得最好效果。2020年中国经济实现正增长，促进了周边国家和主要贸易伙伴的经济复苏，阻止了世界经济陷入更大萎缩。中国在相当一段时期内供应了全球一半左右最终产品，而且总体上没有提高出口离岸价格，为全球疫情防控和经济恢复奠定了坚实基础。如果说最发达国家大量印发的货币形成了拉动全球通胀的动力源，那么，中国数亿劳动者生产的商品就是稳定全球通胀的千钧锚。 为什么我们的财政金融支持政策有那么大的力度，而央行资产负债表能够保持不变呢？首先是因为党中央着眼全局的宏观决策统筹兼顾、科学合理，国务院和国务院金融委的安排指挥切合实际、精准有效。其次是因为金融系统坚定不移地整治脱实向虚现象，坚决降低内部杠杆率，同业理财、同业投资、委托贷款和信托通道业务持续减少，高风险影子银行不断收缩。第三是因为我国央行资产负债表具有特殊优势，持续多年的稳健政策使得存款准备金率保持在较高水平，与此同时利率汇率的市场化改革又卸下了沉重包袱。所以，和发达国家央行购买资产扩表不同，我国通过降低存款准备金率，适当增加定向再贷款，推动商业银行向实体经济发放更多贷款，与此同时引导更多社会储蓄转化为直接投资和证券投资，显著地扩大了中国和世界迫切需要产品的生产和供应能力，推动了经济的绿色转型进程。 中国已经进入新发展阶段，我们将深入贯彻新发展理念，积极推进供给侧结构性改革，不断增强和提升国内国际双循环相互促进的格局。从金融角度来看，必须进一步扩大对外开放，健全公司治理结构，加快市场化兼并重组，规范互联网平台，促进公平竞争。要抓紧推进传统金融服务数字化转型，促使金融机构能够更精准服务实体经济，更精准防范金融风险。发展普惠金融，加强小微企业和弱势群体金融服务，切实促进共同富裕。发展绿色金融，为确保如期实现碳达峰碳中和目标提供有力金融支撑。发展科技金融，通过多种方式支持自主创新和自立自强。 现阶段最突出的一项任务就是进一步加大直接融资比重。在去年新增社会融资规模中，债券和股票融资占比已经达到37%左右，还可以有更大的发展空间，特别是债券市场还有很大潜力。妨碍其健康成长的一个主要短板是，债券市场法制还不够健全。迫切需要让各级政府、企业、中介机构和投资者都认识到逃废债不仅是不道德的行为，而且是违法违规甚至是犯罪的行为。根本性举措是加快以信息披露为核心的注册制改革，真正加强投资者适当性管理，确保发行方、中介机构、投资者严格依法履行各自义务，承担各自责任。 经过化解重大金融风险三年攻坚战，过去我们面临的多个方面的金融风险都出现了收敛趋势。但是，防范风险是金融工作的永恒主题。我们必须居安思危，一刻也不能松懈。就当前而言，需要重点关注以下几个方面。 第一，积极应对不良资产反弹。为受疫情影响的中小微企业贷款本息实施延期，预计将有一定比例最终劣变为不良。一些地方房地产泡沫化金融化倾向严重，相当数量的政府融资平台偿债压力很大，部分大中型企业债务违约比例上升，加剧了银行机构的信用风险。部分中小金融机构面临的形势更为严峻。必须督促银行机构做实资产分类，加大拨备计提力度，确保能够更快更多地处置不良资产。 第二，严密防范影子银行死灰复燃。我国高风险影子银行与国外不同，具有典型的“体系内”和“类信贷”特征。经过整治后，我国影子银行规模已较历史峰值压降20万亿元，但存量规模依然较大，稍有不慎就极易反弹回潮。要防止金融机构再次通过交叉性金融产品无序加杠杆，对各种“类信贷”新花样必须遏制在初期阶段。要认真落实资管新规，确保存量资管产品整治任务顺利完成。 第三，坚决整治各类非法公开发行证券行为。金融市场目前仍然存在大量名为“私募”实为“公募”的各类产品。过往的非法集资案件，许多实质上属于非法公开发行证券。这些产品参与投资的人数都突破200人的限制，发行对象实际上面向不特定的投资者，对市场、社会和人民群众造成严重损害。一旦发现“假私募、真公募”，应依法予以严惩，并按欺诈发行、财务造假或虚假披露追究发行人等相关方的法律责任。 第四，切实防范金融衍生品投资风险。在前期发生风险的金融衍生品案例中，有大量个人投资者参与投资。从成熟金融市场看，参与金融衍生品投资的主要是机构投资者，非常不适合个人投资理财。道理在于，受不可控制甚至不可预测的多种因素影响，金融衍生品价格波动很大，对投资者的专业水平和风险承受能力具有很高要求。普通个人投资者参与其中，无异于变相赌博，损失的结果早已注定。那些炒作外汇、黄金及其他商品期货的人很难有机会发家致富，正像押注房价永远不会下跌的人最终会付出沉重代价一样。 第五，时刻警惕各种变换花样的“庞氏骗局”。当下，各种以高息回报为诱饵，打着所谓的金融科技、互联网金融等旗号的骗局层出不穷，其实质都是击鼓传花式的非法集资活动。大家一定要牢记，天上不会掉馅饼，宣扬“保本高收益”就是金融诈骗。要自觉提高警惕，增强风险防范意识和识别能力，远离各类非法金融活动。 希望出席论坛的嘉宾和业内同仁们在就高深问题发表真知灼见之余，也能不厌其烦地宣传这些最基本的金融常识。 衷心感谢主持人的热情介绍和协助！ 祝本次论坛取得圆满成功！ 祝上海国际金融中心建设迈上新的台阶！ 谢谢大家！ 2021-06-14/xiamen/2021/0614/1742.html
-
尊敬的李强书记、龚正市长、吴清副市长，树清主席、会满主席、功胜局长，女士们、先生们： 大家上午好！ 作为本届论坛的共同轮值主席，我谨代表主办方，向出席第十三届陆家嘴论坛的各位嘉宾、各位朋友表示热烈的欢迎！ 陆家嘴论坛已成功举办12届，见证了中国金融事业的进步，见证了上海国际金融中心的快速发展。特别是，去年以来，中国金融体系稳妥应对疫情冲击，为经济快速恢复增长提供了有力支撑，上海国际金融中心建设也取得了新的进展。比如，引入了全国首家外资独资寿险、公募基金和外资控股理财公司；推出了国内首批利率期权产品、多个国际期货新品种；金融科技创新监管试点走在全国前列；超过900家境外机构进入中国银行间市场，持债规模达到3.3万亿元。我们很高兴看到，上海在全球金融中心的排名已连续两次位居第三。在此，我代表人民银行向上海市表示祝贺！ 这次论坛聚焦金融支持碳达峰碳中和、科技创新、人民群众“美好生活”，金融业对外开放等重大议题，这些议题都是金融系统贯彻创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大新发展理念，助力加快构建新发展格局，支持经济高质量发展的重要内容。 今天，我想借此机会，围绕货币政策、绿色金融和普惠金融发展等话题同大家进行交流。当前我国进入新发展阶段，我们观察到人口结构、资源结构、产业结构、区域结构等都在发生深刻调整和变化，对潜在经济增长和物价水平产生影响。 在从高速增长转向高质量发展的过程中，我国经济总量基数越来越大，同时受劳动生产率增速下降和人口结构变化等影响，潜在经济增长率会有一定减缓。人口结构变化也会对经济供给和需求两侧产生影响，在人口老龄化趋势下，以资本和劳动投入来拉动经济的增长模式难以为继，未来可持续增长主要靠提高全要素生产率，并通过一系列改革措施释放经济增长潜力。去年以来，尽管受到新冠疫情的严重冲击，但如果从去年和今年两年平均来看，我们预测我国GDP增速将接近于潜在增长率水平。 货币政策要关注结构变化对物价的影响。人口老龄化会导致居民预防性储蓄上升、消费倾向下降，因此对通胀产生抑制作用。而绿色转型会使物价走势有所上升。什么是绿色转型？绿色转型就是使人们的生产和生活方式转向低碳模式。因为碳排放能源是大头，简单地说绿色转型就是鼓励大家多用清洁能源，少用化石能源。但问题是在现有技术条件下，从整体上看化石能源便宜且稳定，清洁能源贵且尚不稳定，这就是所谓“绿色溢价”，因为化石能源碳排放成本基本上没有体现。绿色转型的任务就是对碳排放加以限制，使碳排放的成本显性化，也就是说要求排放者对增量的碳排放付出成本，同时对存量的碳排放权通过定价实现可交易，使得减排者获得收益，也使得排放者付出适当成本，从而鼓励生产和消费向低碳方式转型。这一过程客观上会导致和碳排放有关的成本上升，进而带来结构性价格上涨的压力。以上分析有对价格下跌的压力，有对价格上涨的压力，不同方向的价格压力会在一定程度上相互对冲，从而有利于在整体上稳定物价。 近期全球原油等大宗商品价格上涨较快，全球通胀水平短期上升已成事实，但对通胀是否能长期持续下去，存在着巨大分歧。我国去年疫情期间坚持实施正常货币政策，国内总需求比较平稳，有利于保持物价总体稳定。今年以来我国PPI增幅较高，一定程度上与去年PPI为负形成的低基数有关，所以我们可以用去年今年和明年连续三年的整体视角来观察PPI变化。综合各方面因素判断，今年我国CPI走势前低后高，全年的CPI平均涨幅预计在2%以下。当然，外部的疫情形势、经济回升、宏观形势和宏观政策等都有不确定性，对来自各方面的通胀和通缩的压力均不可掉以轻心。 考虑到我国经济运行在合理区间内，在潜在产出水平附近，物价走势整体可控，货币政策要与新发展阶段相适应，坚持稳字当头，坚持实施正常的货币政策，尤其是注重跨周期的供求平衡，把握好政策的力度和节奏。目前国内利率水平虽比主要发达经济体高一些，但在发展中国家和新兴经济体中仍相对较低，总体保持在适宜的水平，有利于各市场的稳定健康发展。要继续深化利率市场化改革，释放贷款市场报价利率改革潜力。要继续完善以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，促进内外平衡，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。在保持总量政策适度的前提下，货币信贷政策将主要强调两大结构性方面。 第一，扎实推动绿色金融发展。实现碳达峰、碳中和目标，是党中央作出的重大战略决策。人民银行积极运用结构性货币政策等工具，多措并举助力经济的绿色转型和碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现。一是完善绿色金融标准体系。人民银行、银保监会等部门较早制定了绿色债券和绿色信贷的标准。同时与欧盟有关部门等方面紧密合作，共同推动绿色分类标准的趋同。二是建立气候环境信息披露制度。推动国内主要商业银行披露气候变化相关信息，并研究推广至上市公司等市场主体。未来，将建立统一的信息披露标准。三是激励金融部门加大对绿色产业的资金支持。研究碳减排支持工具。四是引导金融机构防范气候变化风险。人民银行已开展金融机构气候变化风险压力测试，并持续监测评估金融机构绿色转型。要充分考虑现有基础设施的投入成本、预期使用寿命和折旧的实际情况，稳妥设计转轨参数和动态风险权重，努力实现在绿色转型的过渡期平稳转轨。 第二，坚持发展普惠金融。近年来我们持续加大对小微企业和个体工商户的金融支持。实现保就业保民生，实现增收入促消费，从而稳住经济基本盘。我们始终坚持市场化、法治化原则，健全激励相容机制，强化商业银行信贷风险管控能力。目前普惠小微贷款已支持3600多万户小微企业和个体工商户。我们将继续运用结构性货币政策工具，发挥部门政策合力，引导银行在商业可持续的前提下，加大首贷、信用贷支持力度。鼓励银行与企业按照商业可持续原则，加强贷款风险防范。深入开展中小微企业金融服务能力提升工程，强化金融科技手段运用，推广随借随还模式，促进商业银行加快形成敢贷、愿贷、能贷、会贷的长效机制。 推动上海国际金融中心建设，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想为指引，增创国际合作和竞争新优势，以国际循环提升国内大循环的效率和水平。近日，中央再次就支持浦东新区高水平改革开放提出明确意见和要求，支持上海进一步完善金融市场体系、产品体系、机构体系、基础设施体系，增强全球资源配置能力。我曾在之前的陆家嘴论坛上提出，上海国际金融中心一定是基于人民币资产形成的国际金融中心。随着全球配置人民币资产需求的增加，将衍生出对人民币资产的风险管理、法治环境、人才供给等一系列需求。在此过程中，上海将成为人民币资产配置中心、风险管理中心、金融科技中心、优质营商环境示范中心和金融人才中心，将成为更有竞争力的国际金融中心。对此，我们充满信心。 下一步，人民银行将一如既往地支持上海国际金融中心建设工作。支持上海强化全球资源配置功能，打造促进双循环的绿色金融枢纽，推动长三角一体化高质量发展，助力上海成为新发展格局下联通国际市场和国内市场的重要枢纽和桥梁。 最后，预祝本届论坛取得圆满成功！ 谢谢大家！ 2021-06-11/xiamen/2021/0611/1740.html
-
尊敬的李强书记、龚正市长，易纲行长、树清主席、会满主席，各位来宾： 大家好！ 借助今天论坛的机会，我就中国外汇市场的形势发展，给大家做一个汇报。 一、人民币汇率双向波动，外汇市场运行平稳 （一）外汇市场运行是各个方面比较关心的问题，今年以来，人民币对美元汇率双向波动、总体稳定 国际金融市场的变化，尤其是美元利率、汇率的波动，对包括人民币在内的其他货币都产生了一定影响。同时，我国经济保持稳定恢复态势，促进了人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 当前，我国经常账户顺差继续处于合理区间，外汇市场供求基本平衡，外汇储备稳中有升。 我国实施的以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，是一项适合中国国情的汇率制度安排，需要长期坚持。 （二）人民币汇率的影响因素复杂，双向波动将成为常态 人民币汇率的稳定性优于其他货币，汇率预期稳定，外汇市场交易理性有序。 人民币汇率变化受内外部多重因素影响。我国经济稳中向好，货币政策处于常态化状态，国际收支运行稳健，外汇市场更加成熟，这些因素将继续为人民币汇率稳定提供有力支撑。同时我们应该看到影响汇率变化的外部环境存在多重不稳定不确定因素。第一，世界经济复苏仍不平衡，美国等发达经济体经济恢复加快，与我国经济增长差距逐步收窄。第二，随着美国通胀水平上升和通胀预期升温，市场对美联储货币政策收紧的预期升高，美联储货币政策调整压力加大，将对全球外汇市场和跨境资本流动格局产生重要影响。第三，疫情以来，在超级宽松政策刺激下，国际金融市场估值水平高企，脱离实体经济基本面，金融市场脆弱性较强，国际金融市场存在高位回调的风险，可能导致全球避险情绪上升和跨境资本流动的变化。第四，后疫情时代国际政治经济博弈加剧，可能对金融市场尤其是外汇市场形成冲击。此外，中国外汇市场变化具有明显的季节性特征。每年6-8月份是季节性购汇较多的时期，外商投资企业和境外上市公司的分红派息和利润汇出比较集中，同时中国大量海外留学人员也一般会在这几个月购汇支付下学年的学费和海外的生活费用。 二、市场主体应适应汇率双向波动的常态，树立汇率风险中性理念 在汇率双向波动的环境里，如何做好汇率风险管理，对企业尤其是国际业务较为活跃企业的财务绩效具有十分重要的影响。近年来，我国外汇市场取得长足发展，外汇衍生品市场已具备一定的深度和广度，形成了远期、外汇掉期、货币掉期和期权等丰富的产品体系，以及多元化的市场参与主体。2020年，我国外汇市场交易规模30万亿美元，其中60%是外汇衍生品交易。我国企业“汇率风险中性”理念不断加强，汇率风险管理水平不断提升，今年以来企业外汇衍生品套保比率达到两成多，比去年提升了5个百分点，不过提高空间仍然较大。 降低企业汇率风险，需要企业、银行、监管部门共同努力。一是部分企业在外汇风险管理方面存在“顺周期”和“裸奔”行为，企业顺周期的财务运作通过资产负债的货币错配积累风险敞口，赚取汇率升贬值的收益，也必然承担汇率升贬值的风险。从企业财务稳健的角度看，企业汇率风险管理应坚持服务主业和“汇率风险中性”原则，审慎安排资产负债货币结构，避免外汇风险管理的“顺周期”和“裸奔”行为，不要赌人民币升值或贬值，久赌必输。二是建立健全开放的、有竞争力的外汇市场。三是推动金融机构丰富避险产品，降低企业避险保值成本。四是提高市场透明度，便利市场主体理性判断外汇市场形势。五是加强宏观审慎管理和预期引导，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 三、稳步推进外汇管理改革，提升跨境贸易投资自由化便利化水平 中国经常项目早在1996年已实现完全可兑换。本世纪以来，中国资本项目开放步伐稳健，按照国际标准已具有较高的可兑换水平。资本项目是指跨境资本和金融交易，主要包括跨境直接投资、证券投资和跨境借贷三大类，涉及跨境交易、货币兑换和资金跨境汇出入三个环节。目前，直接投资已实现基本可兑换；证券投资项下形成了以机构投资者制度、互联互通机制、境外投资者直接入市为主的跨境投资制度安排；跨境债务融资由市场主体在全口径宏观审慎政策框架下自主进行。 我们将统筹发展和安全，不断改革完善与新发展格局下更高水平开放型经济新体制相适应的外汇管理体制机制。一是提升经常项目下跨境贸易便利化水平。深化外汇领域“放管服”改革，建立以信用风险评估和事后核查为主的外汇监管体系。二是稳妥有序推进中国资本项目高水平开放。统筹交易和汇兑环节，统筹跨境人民币和外币管理，统筹资本项目开放和风险防范，有序推动少数不可兑换项目的开放，提高已可兑换项目的便利化水平。以人民币国际化和金融市场双向开放为重点，积极支持上海建设人民币金融资产配置和风险管理中心，拓展人民币金融市场广度和深度。三是不断提高开放条件下的经济金融管理能力和风险防控能力，完善外汇市场“宏观审慎+微观监管”管理框架，健全“反洗钱、反恐怖融资、反逃税”审查机制，维护外汇市场稳定和健康运行。 近期外汇领域改革开放将推动以下几个方面的重点工作。一是丰富外汇市场产品和境内外参与主体，完善和提升中国外汇交易中心和上海清算所立足上海、服务全球的基础设施体系和服务能力。二是推进私募股权投资基金跨境投资改革。支持私募股权投资基金开展跨境产业、实业投资。扩大合格境内有限合伙人（QDLP）试点和合格境外有限合伙人（QFLP）试点，助推上海成为全球重要的财富管理、资产管理市场。三是扩大中国居民境外资产配置空间。通过金融市场基础设施互联互通（沪港通、深港通、债券通等），扩大合格境内机构投资者（QDII）规模，完善QDII管理机制，在开放地区推出“跨境理财通”业务试点。四是便利企业跨境融资。近年来人民银行、外汇局建立健全全口径跨境融资宏观审慎政策框架，企业可依其净资产规模在一定额度内自主借用外债。部分创新型企业特别是中小微创新型企业，成长初期净资产规模较小，跨境融资额度上限较低，为此我们在北京中关村、上海自贸区等地区开展了外债便利化试点，赋予符合条件的高新技术企业一个自主借用外债的便利化额度，支持上海科创中心建设。五是支持离岸贸易、跨境电商、市场采购等贸易新业态的跨境收支。六是便利大型企业集团跨境资金统筹使用。开展跨国公司本外币一体化资金池业务试点。 近期，我们也将在上海临港新片区以及粤港澳大湾区和海南自贸港部分地区，开展外汇管理高水平开放试点，为外汇领域推进高水平制度型开放积累经验。 四、完善外汇储备经营管理，建设国际优秀的资产管理机构 中国外汇储备是全球金融市场重要的投资者、是负责任的投资者，我们按照市场化原则在国际金融市场运作，尊重国际市场规则和行业惯例，维护和促进国际金融市场的稳定与发展。 2007年起，我们就已将ESG（环境、社会、治理）因素纳入外汇储备经营管理流程。一是多渠道开展绿色债券投资，近5年外汇储备绿色债券复合增长率约60%。二是将ESG因素纳入投资决策和风险管理流程。 未来，在安全、流动、保值增值的基础上，外汇储备将把可持续投资作为长期目标。我们将进一步践行ESG投资理念，拓展ESG投资和风险管理的深度和广度。在增加绿色债券投资的基础上，积极探索通过委托投资、国际金融组织合作、丝路基金等股权机构对外直接投资等渠道开展可持续投资；完善气候变化对储备投资风险的分析和评估框架。中国外汇储备将加强国际交流与合作，坚定不移支持全球绿色低碳发展，共同为推进全球气候治理、构建人与自然生命共同体而努力。 各位来宾！ 中国金融市场发展实践证明，坚定不移地改革开放，是实现中国金融市场发展市场化、法治化、国际化目标的强大推动力和重要保障，是进一步提升中国金融市场服务实体经济能力和国际竞争力的关键之举。 我们将更好统筹发展和安全，统筹推动资本项目开放、金融市场双向开放和人民币国际化，提升跨境贸易投资自由化便利化水平，有效防范跨境资本流动冲击，维护金融稳定和国家经济金融安全，服务更高水平开放型经济新体制，支持上海国际金融中心建设。 谢谢大家！ 2021-06-17/xiamen/2021/0617/1743.html
-
为宣传推广外债便利化额度政策，推进汇率避险专项行动，4月29日，江津中心支局联合建设银行重庆分行国际业务部、江津支行调研走访企业，就企业当前的融资与避险需求开展交流座谈。 中心支局一是详细解读了外债便利化额度等境外融资政策、相关操作流程，指导企业打通境外融资渠道，降低资金成本。二是建议企业可结合自身业务开展情况使用多种衍生金融工具进行组合避险，引导企业丰富避险产品，完善避险方案。三是要求银行提高服务企业的站位，尽快制定出最优避险方案，减少企业汇兑损失；同时提供更多样化的融资产品，减费让利，减少企业资金使用成本，让企业得到实惠。 建设银行重庆分行国际业务部、江津支行相关负责人表示会根据企业实际情况和具体诉求设计组合产品，结合国际形势和企业资金结构的变化调整优化避险方案，帮助企业解决问题，服务企业。 企业相关负责人表示，中心支局的现场指导十分及时，帮助企业深入理解了政策，扩展了思路，接下来将加强与银行沟通交流，优化融资和汇率避险结构。 2021-04-30/chongqing/2021/0430/1864.html