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The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) recently disseminated the official data on the balance of payments (BOP) for the first quarter of 2016. The press spokesperson of the SAFE answered media questions on relevant issues. Q: The data recently disseminated by the SAFE show that the surplus in the current account plunged in the first quarter of 2016 on a year-on-year basis. What are the main reasons behind? What are the outlooks for the current account? A: The current account registered a surplus of USD 39.3 billion in the first quarter of 2016, down by 54% year on year (same below) for the reasons as follows: First, the surplus in trade in goods fell. Trade in goods in the balance of payments registered a surplus of USD 103.9 billion in the first quarter, down by 11%. Dragged by sluggish demand in global markets, exports dropped by 12%, versus growth of 0.3% in the same period last year, while imports fell by 12%, lower than 16% in the same period last year, thanks to the stable domestic economy and pick-up of commodity prices, which, coupled with a high export base, resulted in a lower surplus in trade in goods. Second, the deficit in trade in services grew. Trade in services registered a deficit of USD 57.6 billion in the first quarter, up by 47%. The major component of the deficit was the deficit in travel, which hit USD 55.4 billion, up by 33%. This shows that, driven by China's enhancing economic strength and its people's increasing income, people's actual power for overseas purchasing has been strengthened and their demand for traveling, studying and seeking medical help abroad is enhancing. It is expected that the current account will remain in surplus in the near future, with its ratio to GDP still at an international rational level. First, trade in goods will remain in surplus. The slow recovery of the global economy has been favorable for stabilizing China's external demand, with its exports recovering in March-May, but as global commodity prices remain low, and China's domestic demand stays stable, its imports will continue to be greatly lower than exports. Second, trade in services and other accounts will remain in deficit. Overall, the current account led by trade in goods will continue to register a surplus, and its ratio to GDP is expected to be consistent with the level for recent years. Q: The data recently disseminated by the SAFE show that the non-reserve financial account remained in deficit in the first quarter of 2016. What would you say about this? What are your perspectives into the future BOP status? A: The deficit in the non-reserve financial account (excluding reserve assets, same below) shows domestic players have made heavier outbound investment and reduced their external debt. In the first quarter of 2016, the financial account recorded a deficit of USD 123.3 billion, up by 9% year on year and down by 26% quarter on quarter. On the one hand, domestic players participated in international economic activities more actively but were more sensible than in the fourth quarter of 2015. External assets for the first quarter rose by USD 109.8 billion, which was up by 35% year on year or down by 3% quarter on quarter. Those in direct investment and other investment went up by USD 57.4 billion and USD 28.7 billion respectively, which was up by 77% and 26% year on year, or down by 13% and 6% quarter on quarter. On the other hand, Chinese companies' external debt fell further, but they were slow in deleveraging. The external debt for the first quarter dropped by USD 13.5 billion, which was down by 57% year on year or 75% quarter on quarter. Net outflows under other external debt for investment amounted to USD 38.5 billion, down by 67% year on year and quarter on quarter respectively. But overseas capital under direct investment recorded heavy net inflows, showing overseas long-term capital remains confident in China. The pressure on China from cross-border capital outflows has been relieved recently. The deficit in banks' settlement and sales of foreign exchange dropped by 35% and 47% in April and May on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The deficit in banks' foreign-related receipts and payments for customers was down by 66% quarter on quarter in April, but banks' foreign exchange receipts and payments for customers turned around in May. The balance of foreign exchange reserves fell by a monthly average of USD 10.4 billion in April and May, much lower than the monthly average decrease of USD 39.3 billion in the first quarter. China's BOP is expected to find a basic level of equilibrium in 2016, with continued surpluses in the current account and deficits in the capital and financial account. On the one hand, driven by policies and measures for economic restructuring, production capacity adjustment and industry upgrading, China's economy will sustain a mid-to-high growth rate, the current account led by trade in goods will remain in surplus, foreign exchange reserves will continue to be adequate, and its capability against the impact from cross-border capital flows will be strong, which will make China attractive to long-term foreign investment. On the other hand, under the new normal of economic transformation and upgrading, domestic players will raise their awareness of participation in international economic development, which will drive them to make rational arrangements for cross-border investment and financing based on domestic and overseas situations and their development needs. Under such circumstances, China's BOP is expected to find a basic level of equilibrium as its cross-border capital will display a pattern of alternation of inflows and outflows and bidirectional fluctuations. 2016-08-30/en/2016/0830/1208.html
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The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released statistics on foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks and foreign-related receipts and payments through banks in April 2016. The SAFE press spokesperson answered media questions on recent cross-border capital flows. Q: China's cross-border capital outflow pressure was eased in the first quarter this year, are there any new developments in April? A: The gradual easing of cross-border outflow pressure of the first quarter continued in April. Since the beginning of this year, both the deficit in foreign exchange settlement and sales and the deficit in foreign-related receipts and payments of banks have been on the decline. In April 2016, banks' deficit in foreign exchange settlement and sales stood at USD 23.7 billion, down by 35percent month on month. In January to March, banks' deficit in foreign exchange settlement and sales was USD 54.4 billion, USD 33.9 billion and USD 36.4 billion respectively. In April, the non-banking sectors posted a deficit in foreign-related receipts and payments of USD 8.9 billion, down by 66 percent month on month. Specifically, the net outflow of foreign exchange funds hit USD 2 billion, down by 67 percent month on month. In January to March, the net outflow of cross-border capital was USD 55.8 billion, USD 30.5 billion and USD 26.1 billion respectively and the net outflow of foreign exchange was USD 20.1 billion, USD 10.5 billion and USD 5.9 billion respectively. Besides, the balance of foreign exchange reserves rebounded in two consecutive months, with an increase of USD 10.3 billion and USD 7.1 billion in March and April respectively. The details are as follows: Firstly, domestic players were less willing to buy foreign exchange, and their external debt repayment continued to slow down. In April, the foreign exchange sale ratio (or the ratio of foreign exchange purchased by clients from banks to their foreign-related foreign exchange payments) that measures the motivation to buy foreign exchange was 75 percent, down 5 percentage points from the first quarter. Meanwhile, the balance of import financing such as refinancing and forward L/C dropped by USD 1.3 billion, which was 88% lower than the monthly average fall for the first quarter. Secondly, enterprises and individuals were more willing to settle exchange settlement but less willing to hold foreign exchange. In April 2016, the foreign exchange settlement ratio (or the ratio of foreign exchange sales to banks by clients to their foreign-related foreign exchange receipts) that measures the willingness to settle foreign exchange was 63 percent, 4 percentage points higher than the first quarter. In the same period, the balance of foreign exchange deposit increased by USD 900 million, which contracted by 93 percent from the monthly average growth for the first quarter. Since the beginning of this year, China has been under easing pressure from cross-border capital outflows, which reflects the changes in internal and external market environments. In the near future, China's economy will continue to operate within the reasonable range and at a relatively high rate compared with those of the rest of the world, which will be conducive to the overall stability of China's cross-border capital flows. 2016-07-11/en/2016/0711/1199.html
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Q: How do you view the changes in China’s full-scale external debt data as of the end of September? A: As at the end of September 2015, China's full-scale outstanding external debt was the equivalent of USD 1.5298 trillion, down by USD 150.3 billion from the end of June. Our analysis shows that the changes in the size of China's external debt are primarily caused by the following: first, domestic players have been actively repaying debt under trade finance to avoid exchange rate risks. As of the end of September, banks' balance of trade finance (i.e., refinancing and forward L/C) was USD 31.4 billion lower than that of the end of June. Second, domestic players have optimized the structure of liabilities and assets in domestic and foreign currencies through financial operation. By the end of September, the outstanding RMB-denominated external debt fell by USD 98.1 billion from the end of June. Third, along with heightened expectations of the Fed's rate rise in the third quarter, some foreign financial institutions and non-residents have adjusted their deposit allocation. The deposits passively absorbed by Chinese financial institutions from their foreign counterparts and non-residents dropped by USD 70.3 billion as of the end of September, as compared with that of the end of June. Overall, with the decline in external debt, the external solvency risk facing China has been reduced. Going forward, as the RMB exchange rate elasticity is enhanced, the capital account convertibility is further boosted and the interest rate and exchange rate change in international markets, short-term fluctuations in China's full-scale external debt may become a new normal. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) will continue to enhance ongoing and ex-post monitoring and analysis, actively build an external debt and capital flow management system under the macro-prudential management framework, increase the response policy reserves and improve emergency plans to guard against the risks associated with abnormal cross-border capital flows. 2016-01-06/en/2016/0106/1180.html
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With the approval from the State Council, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, wrote a letter on October 6, 2015 to Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the capacity of Governor of the IMF for China, officially informing Ms. Lagarde of China's decision to adopt the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the IMF. This marks that China has completed all the processes for subscribing to the SDDS and will observe the SDDS to disseminate its statistical data. On October 7, Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), and David Lipton, first deputy managing director of the IMF, attended a ceremony to celebrate China's adoption of the SDDS during the annual meeting of the IMF in Lima. Subscribing to the SDDS, a necessary step in reform and opening up, will further improve the transparency, credibility and International comparability of China’s macroeconomic statistics, further unveil China's macroeconomic conditions to provide timely and accurate basis for decision-making on the macro-economy, and deepen the international community's and the public's understanding of China's economy to expand China's participation in global economic cooperation. The adoption of the SDDS is another bold step forward in improving China's statistical system and transparency. To help data users to fully understand the statistical methodologies of China's foreign-related departments, scientifically assess the coverage, timeliness, availability and authenticity of the data, and reasonably judge the conditions of China's foreign-related economy, the SAFE hereby releases SDDS metadata for the Balance of Payments, the International Investment Position and the External Debt Statistics Interpretation Documents for reference. 2015-11-30/en/2015/1130/1177.html
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Recently, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) disseminated the country-specific data on China's external portfolio investment assets for the first time. The statistics show that China's external portfolio investment assets (excluding reserve assets) amounted to USD 286.8 billion as at the end of June 2015, including USD 177.8 billion in equity investments and USD 109.1 billion in bond investments. The top 5 recipients of Chinese investments were the US, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, the UK and Japan, with the amount being USD 116.7 billion, USD 49.5 billion, USD 16.3 billion, USD 13 billion and USD 12.4 billion respectively. At the end of 2015, the SAFE wrote to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), confirming its participation in the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS). The compiling principle of the CPIS is consistent with the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) published by the IMF. The data released this time were compiled in line with the requirements and formats of the CPIS, with the coverage consistent with the portfolio investment subentry under external assets in the BPM6, but the classified data were more detailed and country specific, with bond investments divided into long-term and short-term investments. The country-specific data on China's external portfolio investment assets are to be released on a half-year basis as required by the IMF. 2016-02-14/en/2016/0214/1187.html
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The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) recently wrote letters to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) respectively, confirming its official participation in the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) and the International Banking Statistics (IBS). The CPIS collects information on the stock of cross-border portfolio investment holdings (by country or region). The BIS reflects the stock of the cross-border financial assets and liabilities of a country's banking industry. The compiling principles of the CPIS and IBS are consistent with the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) published by the IMF. Participation in the CPIS and IBS is one of the motions of the G20 on data gaps. The SAFE will release China's CPIS and IBS statistics soon. 2016-01-19/en/2016/0119/1184.html
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The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released in November 2015 the Operational Guidelines for Funds Management in Cross-Border Issuance and Sales of Mainland and Hong Kong Securities Investment Funds (Guidelines), marking the official launch of the Mutual Fund Connect scheme. According to the Guidelines, the SAFE will disseminate the data on the inward and outward remittances for the cross-border issuance and sales of Mainland and HK funds on a monthly basis starting from February 2016. As at the end of January 2016, the cumulated net inward remittance from the issuance and sales of Mainland funds in Hong Kong amounted to RMB 21.5433 million, and the cumulated outward remittance for the issuance and sales of HK funds in the Mainland, RMB 40.1767 million. 2016-03-14/en/2016/0314/1191.html
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An interview was recently conducted with a responsible person from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on the revised Methods for Reporting the Balance of Payments Statistics (hereafter referred to as the Methods). 1. For what types of transactions does China require that the statistics on the balance of payments be reported? A: In principle, balance-of-payments (BOP) statistics are required for all economic transactions between Chinese and non-Chinese residents, and all financial assets and liabilities arising therefrom, settled in either RMB or foreign currency: “residents” refer to individuals and institutions; “non-Chinese residents” refer to overseas individuals and institutions. “Economic transactions” refer to all activities involving economic incomes and expenditures, including purchases and sales of commodities, provision and use of services, and donations and financial investments, thus emphasizing the capital flows as the relevant activities occur. “Financial assets and liabilities arising therefrom” refer to a creditor’s rights and debt obligations after the occurrence of financial investments, with an emphasis on capital stock. 2. Among non-Chinese residents, who is required to report the BOP statistics? Is this also required of overseas Chinese? A: According to the revised Methods, non-Chinese residents who engage in economic transactions with Chinese residents within the territory of China are required to report the BOP statistics. Currently, statistical data on the balance of payments regarding transactions between Chinese and non-Chinese residents are primarily collected from the Chinese residents. The SAFE does not require non-Chinese residents to report the BOP statistics. However, as these transactions continue to expand in size and type, it will become more difficult and more costly to collect data only from the Chinese residents and will be more difficult to effectively guarantee the quality of the data. Thus, the revised Methods include a reporting requirement for non-Chinese residents who engage in economic transactions within China. The SAFE will introduce specific requirements in this regard at an appropriate time based on the actual circumstances. As overseas Chinese have been residing outside of China for a long period of time and most of their economic interests are in other countries, they are deemed to be non-Chinese residents. When they engage in economic transactions with Chinese residents within China it is difficult to collect high-quality statistical data, thus they are required to carry out the reporting obligation. But they need not report the BOP statistics on all their economic transactions, including those carried out with other non-Chinese residents outside of China, as these transactions are beyond the scope of the statistics in China. 3. Through what channels should the BOPS be reported? A: Entities now report the BOP statistics to the SAFE primarily through two channels: (1) direct reporting. This applies to large (financial and non-financial) institutions that are required to make timely reports on their transactions with respect to bulk foreign-related goods, services, stocks and bonds investments, deposits, and loans and financial derivatives investments; (2) indirect reporting, or reporting through relevant intermediaries. This applies to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and individuals. Such an approach is designed to reduce the burden of on reporting entities, given the characteristics of their foreign-related economic transactions. The relevant intermediaries include banks, insurance companies, securities and fund companies, and institutions engaging in securities registration and settlement as well as custody of funds. 4. What is the meaning of “foreign financial assets and liabilities”? A: According to the revised Methods, the statistical scope of the balance of payments is expanded to include foreign financial assets and liabilities of Chinese residents. Simply put, assets with corresponding creditors and debtors are financial assets, including stocks, bonds, financial derivatives, deposits, loans, trade credits, and other receivables and payables. These assets are financial assets for the creditors and liabilities for the debtors. In contrast, there are non-financial assets, or assets without corresponding debtors, such as machinery equipment, inventories, gems, and intangible assets. To better understand the operations of the reporting entities, the SAFE enumerated the concept in the Notice of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Issuing Statistical Systems for Foreign Financial Assets, Liabilities, and Trading (Huifa [2013] No.43). 5. After the revised Methods have been implemented, how will Chinese individuals report their foreign financial assets? A: During the recent years Chinese individuals have made foreign financial investments based primarily on the system for qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII). Data on the stock of financial assets generated from these investments are primarily collected through the QDII custodian banks. The SAFE currently does not require individuals to report their stock of foreign financial assets. But as China's economy develops rapidly, individuals will have a broader range of channels for making foreign financial investments, and financial assets will continue to expand in size. To improve the quality of the statistical data, the revised Methods begin by improving the relevant systems and clarifying the obligations of individuals within China in terms of reporting their foreign financial assets and liabilities. The rules for the new Methods will be introduced in detail in the future, focusing on supervising the major financial investments made by Chinese individuals and easing controls over minor investments, with the aim of reducing the reporting burdens. 6. What penalties will be imposed if entities fail to report the BOP statistics? A: According to the revised Methods, the SAFE, or its branches/sub-branches, will penalize institutions and individuals that fail to report the BOP statistics in accordance with Article 48 of the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration. Penalties include warnings by foreign exchange administration authorities issued to the violating institutions and to individuals and orders that they correct their violations; institutions will be fined by a maximum of RMB300,000 and individuals will be fined by a maximum of RMB50,000 . 7. How will the SAFE ensure the timeliness, accuracy, and integrity of the BOP statistical data that are reported? A: China has created a complete and effective administrative system for collecting the BOP statistics. Further, the SAFE will take the following measures to ensure the timeliness, accuracy, and integrity of the BOP statistical data that are reported after the revised Methods are implemented. First, further improving the relevant laws and regulations. With implementation of the new Methods, the SAFE will standardize the content of the data and the channels for collection of the BOP statistics in accordance with the implementation rules and normative documents and will clarify the reporting obligations and channels for the relevant institutions and individuals. The SAFE has recently revised the Statistical System for Foreign Financial Assets, Liabilities, and Trading in line with the statistical scope of the “foreign financial assets and liabilities” highlighted in the new Methods. It will continue to supplement and improve the standards and rules for statistical reporting in light of the development of foreign exchange business and statistical needs. Second, enhancing the building of a data acquisition system to make overall improvements in the quality of the statistical data. The SAFE will accelerate development of a data submission system that will be aligned with the revised Methods and will provide banks and other reporting entities with rapid-reporting access. This will help the SAFE to employ wide-scale IT applications in terms of data collection, summaries, and processing. Third, intensify training and verification efforts. The foreign exchange administration authorities at all levels will provide data- reporting institutions such as banks with regular business training to improve the professional expertise of those statisticians involved in balance-of-payments transactions. The authorities will also conduct off-site verifications of the BOP statistical data that has been reported, track the quality of the relevant data in a timely manner, and even conduct on-site verifications if necessary. 8. What is the purpose of the BOP statistical data? Will the new Methods play an active role in combating corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion? A: According to Article 16 of the new Methods, “The SAFE and its branches and sub-branches shall keep the reported data strictly confidential and shall use them only for BOP statistical efforts. Unless otherwise provided by law, BOPS statisticians shall not provide the reported data to any institutions and individuals in any form.” Thus, the reported data on the BOP statistics are primarily used by the SAFE for monitoring and analyzing the foreign exchange situation and cross-border capital flows, and for compiling foreign-related macro-economic statistical data, including balance-of-payments statements, the international investment position, and foreign-related receipts and payments through banks. Thus far, independent management systems and data sources have been created to combat corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion. Unless otherwise provided for by the law, the SAFE will not provide the reported statistical data on the BOP to the above administrative authorities. These authorities shall not combat or penalize illegal practices by using the above data. 9. With the implementation of the new Methods, more entities will be required to report the BOP statistics. Will this contravene those policies that have been designed to facilitate external investments? A: No, it will not. First, as we allow the market to play a decisive role in allocating resources so as to facilitate external investments, China will be exposed to growing external economic risks. Only by acquiring timely, accurate, and integrated BOP statistical data can the potential risks be effectively warded off, thereby creating conditions for a bi-directional opening-up of the capital market. Second, in the wake of the global financial crisis, the major economies have imposed more stringent statistical requirements on foreign-related transactions by expanding the scope of the statistics, increasing the statistical elements, and enhancing the timeliness of the statistics. Major economic organizations including the IMF have increased the statistical standards for foreign-related transactions. China has tightened its requirements on reporting the BOP statistics in accordance with international conventions. Third, with implementation of the new Methods, the SAFE will develop scientific rules to reduce the burdens on the reporting entities by optimizing the channels and simplifying the procedures, thus enabling the entities to engage in more efficient reporting. The SAFE will also disclose the relevant BOP statistical data in a timely manner, thus revealing the development of China's foreign-related economy, with the aim of providing data support to develop investment strategies and to mitigate risks. 2013-12-31/en/2013/1231/1098.html
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Q: Could you please provide a briefing on China’s foreign- exchange situation during the first half of 2013? A: China has seen a transition from an increase in rapid inflows to balanced inflows and outflows of foreign exchange since the beginning of 2013. Foreign-exchange settlements and sales reached USD 911.4 billion and USD 773 billion respectively, resulting in a surplus of USD 138.4 billion during the first half of the year. During the period from January through April, due to the benefits of adequate international liquidity, stable economic fundamentals, and strengthened expectations of an appreciation of the RMB, the trend in large-scale foreign-exchange inflows that emerged during the second half of last October continued, with foreign-exchange settlements and sales at banks registering a surplus of an average of about USD 32.1 billion per month. But due to the changed economic environment in China and the rest of the world, as well due to policy adjustments in China, net inflows of foreign exchange have dropped sharply since May, with the foreign-exchange settlements and sales reaching a surplus of USD 10.4 billion in May but recording a small deficit of USD 400 million in June. Q: Why was there a slump in net cross-border capital inflows during the last two months? A: This was due to international, domestic, seasonal, and policy factors. In the global markets, as the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a gradual withdrawal of the quantitative easing monetary policy after its economic recovery picked up, since May the emerging markets have witnessed a currency depreciation, a decline in the stock markets, and capital outflows. In China, because of downward pressures on its economic growth, those who are bearish on China were on the rise, expectations of an appreciation of the RMB lessened, and forward rates showed the RMB will depreciate more sharply against US dollar; deleveraging reappeared among Chinese firms, and cross-border credit sales and trade financing by banks changed from an average of net inflows of USD 3.3 billion per month during the January-April period to an average of net outflows of USD 21.8 billion per month during May and June. In addition, as the foreign-exchange purchasing price on offshore RMB markets became higher than that on the domestic foreign-exchange market, more purchases of foreign exchange were made in the Chinese mainland, and RMB net payments under the trade item fell from a monthly average of USD 10.9 billion during the January-April period to USD 5.1 billion during May and June. All of the above factors contributed to the decrease in the surplus in foreign-exchange settlements and sales by banks. In terms of seasonal and policy factors, since May and June are peak seasons when Chinese residents choose to travel or to begin their studies abroad, as well as seasons when most foreign-funded firms distribute their bonuses, average monthly purchases of foreign exchange for overseas tours and for investments rose 16 percent and 83 percent respectively from the January through April period of this year. During the past few months, government departments, including the People’s Bank of China, the General Administration of Customs, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), have introduced policies and measures to regulate the settlement of cross-border trade in RMB and customs declarations for exports and to enhance management of bank wealth management products and foreign- exchange inflows, and have managed to contain capital arbitrage via false trading in liquidity. Q: Most emerging markets have been under pressure from currency depreciations and capital outflows during the past months. I am wondering whether China is at risk of continuous large-scale cross-border capital outflows during the second half of the year. A: As the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to gradually increase its exit from quantitative easing that began in May 2013, there have been signs that this may lead to gradual withdrawal of foreign capital from the emerging markets, with a decrease in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the currency indices by more than 10 percent. So far, no signs of massive foreign-capital withdrawals have been discovered in China. First, FDI and net cross-border capital inflows in securities investments have continued to rise. In June, net FDI inflows totaled USD 11.9 billion, up by 14 percent month on month, and net foreign-exchange settlements for securities investments totaled USD 1.5 billion, 3.5 times that during the previous month. Second, FDI withdrawals have remained at a low level. Foreign- exchange purchases for FDI withdrawals totaled USD 3.5 billion during the first half of the year, down by 17 percent year on year. Third, there have been only slight changes in the investment profits repatriated by foreign-funded firms. Foreign-funded firms usually distribute bonuses around June of every year. During this June, profits repatriated by foreign-funded firms dropped 2 percent year on year to reach USD 12.6 billion. Given the uncertainties and instabilities in China and the rest of the world, it is expected that during the second half of the year China’s cross-border capital will stabilize amid fluctuations. As global economic growth continues to slow down, China’s overall external demand will remain weak while international trade frictions will increase, thus placing heavy pressure on exports. As most people believe that the RMB exchange rate is currently at an equilibrium, higher two-way volatility and weaker expectations of an appreciation of the RMB are favorable for slowing down capital inflows. In 2012, for example, China saw bi-directional changes in cross-border capital flows. This pattern of cross-border capital flows and the balanced supply and demand for foreign exchange will become more common in the future, so adaptive adjustments will be made to both domestic macro controls and to the behavior of domestic market players. During the next phase, the SAFE will focus on strengthening the monitoring of cross-border capital flows, increasing policy and data transparency, improving contingency plans and policies to limit the impacts of two-way cross-border capital flows, and will do whatever it takes to control risks in order to support a balance in the balance of payments and the sustained healthy development of China’s foreign-related economy. Q: What about the increase in the foreign-exchange positions of the banks after the SAFE introduced measures to strengthen administration of foreign-exchange fund inflows? A: On May 5, the SAFE issued the Circular of the SAFE on Relevant Issues on Strengthening Administration of Inflows of Foreign- Exchange Funds (Huifa [2013] No. 20, referred to as Circular No. 20 hereafter), stating that a bank’s minimal consolidated position in foreign-exchange settlements and sales will be linked to the foreign-currency loan-to-deposit (LDR) ratio. Banks whose foreign-currency LDR ratio exceeds the reference rate can reduce their LDR ratio via decreasing foreign-currency loans and increasing foreign-currency deposits, or via buying foreign exchange on the spot market and increasing its position through forward foreign- exchange trading. As the policy allows for a two-month transition period, since its issuance the influence of this circular has been absorbed by the financial market, and the foreign-exchange market has remained stable. The overall consolidated position of banks at the end of June was USD 22.5 billion more than that on May 5, the day on which Circular No. 20 was issued, and it was higher than the amount that Circular No. 20 required to be increased. Further analysis shows that net outstanding forward foreign-exchange settlements registered an increase of USD 23.8 billion, while the decrease in the banks’ positions on a cash basis was USD 1.3 billion during the same period, suggesting that forward foreign exchange was not traded thoroughly flat on the spot market so that banks could meet the requirements of Circular No. 20 to increase their consolidated positions. Circular No. 20 has had a limited impact on the banks’ domestic- and foreign-currency cash positions. 2013-08-09/en/2013/0809/1085.html
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Q: Since the Fed initiated the QE tapering at the beginning of this year, some emerging economies have been struggling due to the currency depreciation and capital flight. Under such circumstances, what changes have occurred in terms of China’s cross-border capital flows and what are the main contributing factors? A: Presently China still has a large amount of net inflows of cross-border capital. In January 2014, China reported USD 73.3 billion of surplus in sales and settlements of spot foreign exchange and USD 25.4 billion of surplus in sales and settlements of forward foreign exchange (signed contracts), each representing a record high. Amidst the overall currency depreciation in the emerging markets, the RMB exchange rate remained stable during the month, with the nominal and real effective RMB exchange rate indexes prepared by the BIS up 1.2 percent and 2.1 percent respectively. Internal and external factors such as the real economy, the market, and seasonal fluctuations are the primary contributors to the massive amount of net inflows of foreign exchange. Customs statistics show that in January the surplus of imports and exports amounted to USD 31.9 billion, representing an increase of 13 percent year on year. Ministry of Commerce statistics show that within the month foreign capital disbursements amounted to USD 10.8 billion, up 16 percent year on year. Further, market sentiment prone to inflows continued after September 2013. Despite the polarization in the emerging economies, China has witnessed good economic performance and the RMB exchange rate has remained stable. Within the context of the key advanced economies continuing to maintain low interest rates, market players both at home and abroad remained bullish regarding the RMB and bearish regarding foreign currencies. In the run-up to the Chinese New Year, foreign trade businesses commonly accelerate exports and collection of expenses, resulting in a huge demand to convert foreign exchange into RMB. Additionally, huge amounts of compensation and funds for family maintenance are remitted by overseas migrant workers and overseas Chinese. Q: Recently the RMB exchange rate has been on the decline both at home and abroad. On February 25, the spot rate hit a 7-month low in the domestic market. What do you think about this phenomenon? A: It is true that the RMB exchange rate has presented bi-directional fluctuations both at home and abroad, which can be explained by the following four factors: (1) the recent movements in the RMB exchange rate are the culmination of the adjustments by market players of the RMB trading strategies during earlier stages; (2) the range of fluctuations has been normal as compared with the currency fluctuations in the advanced and emerging markets; (3) as the institutional reform of the RMB exchange rate deepens and the market begins to play a more decisive role in setting the rate, bi-directional volatility of the exchange rate will become normal, calling for efforts by market players to adjust their strategies and to adapt to any changes; (4) the bi-directional fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate at a balanced and rational level will be conducive to promoting an equilibrium in the BOP, creating a better foreign-related economic environment and guarding against financial risks. Q: As the global economy is still facing a post-crisis period, with increasing complexity of the economic and financial environments both at home and abroad, will there be any risks from a massive amount of cross-border capital flight? A: There is little likelihood that China will see massive and sustained cross-border capital flight in the foreseeable future. This can be attributed to two factors: the first is that China’s net inflows of cross-border capital through real economic channels, e.g., trade and investment, will remain massive due to the strong economic fundamentals. It is especially noteworthy that the country will gradually develop and put into practice a series of reform programs in related fields after the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of CPC. This will play a helpful role in achieving the country’s mid- and long-term economic-growth objectives. Over the long term, a positive economic outlook and a huge market potential will continue to be a magnet for capital inflows. The restoration of the global economy, especially of the developed economies, will enable China to maintain a surplus in imports and exports. The second is that the fiscal and financial risks in the country remain under control. The robust current account, the dominance of mid- and long-term capital in the form of FDI in external debts and the abundance of foreign exchange reserves have strengthened the country’s capability to withstand any external impacts. Meanwhile, it should be noted that the country will face great uncertainties in terms of its external environment. Given that China's balance in the current account will gradually improve and the exchange rate of the RMB will tend to move in a rational direction toward equilibrium, there is still a likelihood that the country will witness bi-directional fluctuations of cross-border capital. Thus, it is necessary that with respect to this situation the market players adopt a rational perspective and adopt measures to cope with the changes. Looking ahead, the SAFE will continue to intensify efforts to monitor cross-border capital flows, further increase policy and data transparency, improve pre-arranged policy planning to cushion the impacts of the bi-directional cross-border capital flows, and adopt rigorous measures to guard against risks so as to maintain the healthy and sustainable development of the foreign-related economy. 2014-02-26/en/2014/0226/1109.html