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SAFE News
  • Index number:
    000014453-2020-0060
  • Dispatch date:
    2020-04-17
  • Publish organization:
    State Administration of Foreign Exchange
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    Foreign Exchange Receipts and Payments Data for the First Quarter of 2020 — Press Conference Script
Foreign Exchange Receipts and Payments Data for the First Quarter of 2020 — Press Conference Script

The State Council Information Office held a press conference starting at three pm on Friday, April 17, 2020. Wang Chunying, Press Spokesperson, Chief Economist, and Director-General of the Balance of Payments Department of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), was invited to release the foreign exchange receipts and payments data for the first quarter of 2020, and answer media questions.
Xi Yanchun:
Friends from the press, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to this press conference held by the State Council Information Office. We are pleased to have with us here Wang Chunying, Spokesperson, Chief Economist, and Director-General of the Balance of Payments Department of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. She will share with us the foreign exchange receipts and payments data for the first quarter of 2020 and take your questions.
Now I will give the floor to Ms. Wang Chunying.

15:00:42 2020-04-17 

Wang Chunying:
Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Welcome to this press conference. Now I'd like to share with you China's foreign exchange receipts and payments data for the first quarter of 2020 and then, I will answer your questions.
In the first quarter of 2020, the major uncertainty was the outbreak and spread of COVID-19, which impacted the economic and financial performance in and outside China. The pandemic is still ravaging the world, placing mounting downward pressure on the world economy and sending global financial markets fluctuating. Domestically, China has achieved significant progress in epidemic prevention and control, and is speeding up resumption of work, ensuring the stability of the economy and the society. Since the beginning of this year, with the renminbi exchange rate staying basically stable amid two-way fluctuations, market expectations have been relatively steady, and China's cross-border capital flows have been generally stable, and the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market have been in an overall equilibrium.
In the first quarter of 2020, in dollar terms, banks settled US$ 491.5 billion and sold US$ 452.5 billion in foreign exchange, representing a surplus of US$ 39.1 billion; in yuan terms, banks settled 3.43 trillion CNY and sold renminbi 3.16 trillion in foreign exchange, representing a surplus of renminbi 273 billion. For foreign-related receipts and payments by banks for customers, in dollar terms, banks posted foreign-related receipts of US$ 915.9 billion and foreign-related payments of US$ 946.7 billion for customers, representing a deficit of US$ 30.7 billion; and in yuan terms, banks recorded foreign-related receipts of 6.39 trillion CNY and foreign-related payments of 6.61 trillion CNY for customers, representing a deficit of 216.5 billion CNY.
China's foreign exchange receipts and payments for the first quarter of 2020 are characterized by the following:
First, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were in an overall balance. In the first quarter, banks registered a surplus of US$ 39.1 billion in foreign exchange settlement and sales. But with other factors like forward foreign exchange settlement and sales and options taken into consideration, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market remained in a basic equilibrium. Meanwhile, foreign-related foreign exchange receipts and payments by banks for customers recorded a surplus of US$ 1.7 billion.
Second, foreign-related receipts and payments by banks for customers recorded a deficit and foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks remained in surplus in March, but since the beginning of April, they both have found a basic equilibrium. In March, as global financial markets became more volatile along with the global spread of the novel coronavirus, major global stock indices tumbled, leading to higher risk aversion and strained external liquidity. As a result, huge net cross-border renminbi outflows under portfolio investment were observed in the month, leading to a deficit in foreign-related receipts and payments by banks for customers. But at the same time, China's domestic foreign exchange market was generally stable, with foreign exchange settlement and sales remaining in surplus, so the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were generally in balance. Initial data monitored on a daily basis shows that foreign-related receipts and payments by banks for customers have remained in a basic equilibrium and foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks have continued to register a slight surplus since the beginning of April.
Third, the foreign exchange sales ratio decreased, but foreign exchange financing by firms stayed generally stable. In the first quarter, the sales ratio, a measure of the desire to purchase foreign exchange, or the ratio of foreign exchange purchased by customers from banks to customers' foreign-related foreign exchange payments, was 63%, down by 2% year-on-year. In the meantime, foreign exchange financing by firms stayed stable. By the end of March, the outstanding domestic foreign exchange loans of Chinese banks increased by US$ 27.7 billion from that of the end of 2019. The outstanding foreign currency cross-border financing for imports, like refinancing and forward letters of credit (L/C), went down by US$ 8 billion from that of the end of 2019, matching the changes in imports for the same period.
Fourth, the foreign exchange settlement ratio grew steadily and market participants' desire to hold foreign exchange remained stable. In the first quarter, the foreign exchange settlement ratio, a measure of the desire to settle foreign exchange, or the ratio of sales of foreign exchange to banks by customers to the customers' foreign-related foreign exchange receipts, stood at 66%, up by 5% year-on-year. By the end of March, the balance of domestic foreign exchange deposits held by firms and individuals decreased by US$ 6.7 billion from that of the end of 2019, remaining basically stable.
Fifth, forward foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks remained in surplus. In the first quarter, forward foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks for customers recorded a surplus of US$ 41.4 billion, including a surplus of US$ 16.6 billion in March.
Sixth, foreign exchange reserves stayed generally stable. By the end of the first quarter, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 3.0606 trillion, down by 1.5% from the beginning of the year, primarily because of foreign exchange rate conversion and asset price changes.
These are the major foreign exchange receipts and payments data for the first quarter I have planned to share with you. Next, I will take your questions. 

15:14:21 2020-04-17 

Xi Yanchun:
Thank you, Ms. Wang. Here is the Q&A session. Please remember to tell us the news agency you represent before raising your questions.

15:14:42 2020-04-17 

China Media Group CCTV:
What would you say about China's foreign exchange receipts and payments this year with the global spread of the novel coronavirus? What about the future trends? Thank you.

15:27:51 2020-04-17  

Wang Chunying:
COVID-19 is a new challenge that the world is facing this year. Both global trading and economic activities and international financial markets have been hit hard by the virus. Notwithstanding, China's foreign exchange market has remained generally stable. That's incredible, I think. It reflects China's increasingly maturing foreign exchange market and more sensible market participants. That also shows the confidence of market participants in China's efforts to prevent and control the epidemic and China's economic fundamentals.
China's foreign exchange market has ensured "three remains" so far this year: first, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market has remained in balance; second, the renminbi exchange rate has remained robust against other major currencies; third, market participants have remained sensible and orderly in their cross-border investing and financing activities and foreign exchange settlement and sales. On top of that, China has posted generally stable foreign exchange reserves.
Here are details. Let's look first at the balance between supply and demand of foreign exchange. As I have released just now, China's foreign exchange settlement and sales recorded a big surplus, at US$ 39.1 billion, which served as a foundation for the supply-demand balance in the foreign exchange market. Specifically, cross-border foreign exchange receipts and payments by banks for customers registered a surplus of US$ 1.7 billion, and foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks recorded a surplus of US$ 20.5 billion. In a word, the supply and demand in China's foreign exchange market remained balanced in the first quarter, either in a holistic view or in customers' view. Second, the renminbi exchange rate remained robust against other major currencies. In the first quarter, the US Dollar Index climbed by 2.8%, and the renminbi spot exchange rate against the US dollar fell by a slight 1.8%. As for other currencies, the Emerging Market Currency Index dropped by 12.9%, the GBP fell by 6.3% against the US dollar and the EUR, 1.6% against the US dollar. Overall, the renminbi exchange rate index constructed by the China Foreign Exchange Trading System rose by 2.9% in the first quarter. All these data shows that the renminbi exchange rate has stayed robust among major currencies.

15:29:12 2020-04-17

Wang Chunying:
Third, the behavior of market participants have remained sensible and orderly. Let me explain this in two dimensions: firstly, foreign investment in China shows high enthusiasm of foreign investors in China. Statistics from the Ministry of Commerce indicate that China actually utilized US$ 31.2 billion in foreign capital in the first quarter, with that utilized by the high-tech service industry rising by 15.5%. Statistics from the SAFE show that foreign investors' net holdings of Chinese bonds increased by 48% year-on-year to US$ 16.7 billion in the first quarter. Secondly, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) by firms shows stable and orderly. Statistics from the Ministry of Commerce indicate that the non-financial sector's ODI reached US$ 15.5 billion in January and February, which was stable. SAFE statistics show that net foreign exchange purchases by individuals contracted by 25% in the first quarter from the previous year, denoting sensible and orderly purchases of foreign exchange by individuals. As a result, China's foreign exchange reserves have remained generally stable.
China's fundamentals of sound economic growth will continue to support its foreign exchange market to remain generally stable. First, China's epidemic prevention and control efforts are yielding positive changes, which will stabilize market expectations and confidence. Currently the primary uncertain and destabilizing factor the world economy and global financial markets facing is the evolution of the virus and its shock to the economy and the society. Nevertheless, China is witnessing the consolidated effect of its epidemic response, marked increase in resumption of work and quickened recovery of the economic and social order, which will shore up confidence in the Chinese market and help the growth of the world economy. Second, the trends that China's economy will remain sound over the long term and its reform and opening up will be deepened further have not changed and will continue to attract mid and long-term foreign capital to invest in the Chinese market. Third, China's foreign exchange market is becoming more mature and the renminbi exchange rate is becoming increasingly flexible and experiencing ups and downs in two ways, indicating the renminbi exchange rate is playing a stronger role in regulating the macro-economy and stabilizing the balance of payments. Therefore, China's foreign exchange market is mature enough to absorb and address short-term impacts and sustain stable operations in the future.
But certainly, we still need to intensify monitoring and analysis and diversify our responses to different situations. As it is often said, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Preventive measures will provide a strong guarantee for stable market operations. This is all I want to reply to your questions. Thank you.

15:29:43 2020-04-17 

The Economic Daily:
The SAFE has been stressing the significance of the current account. What impact has the epidemic on the current account in China's balance of payments? Will deficits continue to be observed under the current account in the future? Thank you.

16:08:44 2020-04-17 

Wang Chunying:
The spread of the coronavirus does have had some impacts on the current account in China's balance of payments. We are tracking and analyzing it too. Based on our initial analysis, the impacts mainly include:
First, although impacted by the virus, the current account remained in balance in the first quarter. Customs statistics show that China posted a decline of 13% and 3% in exports and imports respectively in the first quarter, but a smaller contraction in exports in March, suggesting a lower surplus in trade in goods for the first quarter. As far as trade in services is concerned, SAFE statistics show that the deficit in trade in services deceased by 25% in January and February, primarily because of plummets in travel spending. Initial statistics indicate that travel spending remained low in March, which means a declining deficit in trade in services. As the current account in China's balance of payments is mainly comprised of trade in goods and in services, with income and current transfers low enough to be omitted, trade in goods and in services are the major indicators of the current account trends. Since the deficits in trade in goods and in services contracted in sync in the first quarter, the current account will probably remain in balance and fall within the reasonable range.
Second, the epidemic will not impact the mid and long-term trends of China's current account. The coronavirus evolves following its own rules, and its spread will be contained as scientists or biologists and pharmacists deepen their understanding of the virus, research and develop medications, and accumulate experience and diversify approaches to epidemic prevention and control. Trading and economic activities across the world will recover and depressed external demand will be restored. Domestically, efforts have been stepped up to coordinate epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development. Statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that more than 99% of industrial enterprises above the designated size had resumed work and 94% of workers have returned to their jobs as of mid-April. The rapid increase in the work resumption rate can guarantee domestic supply and demand, and also ensure supply for foreign trade. Therefore, we believe that the coronavirus will not impact the medium and long-term trends of the current account.
Third, the current account balance, the topic I cover whenever I am in a press conference, is determined by deep-seated and long-standing factors like the domestic economic structure, which doesn't change easily. Firstly, China's manufacturing industry featuring a large size and diverse segments has strong pressure resistance capabilities and resilience. Over the past few years, we have been advancing the supply-side structure reform, witnessing strengthened capabilities across the industry chain and sharper competitive edge of the manufacturing industry. Secondly, as China's economic structure is optimized, investment efficiency has been ramped up and the savings rate, declining over the past few years though, has remained high in recent years compared to the rest of the world. In theory, the current account balance is determined by savings and investment shortages. With this taken into consideration, we believe the current account in China's balance of payments can also find a basic equilibrium.
The current account is in balance at present, which will not change despite slight deficits or surpluses caused by short-term factors or uncertainties. For example, the surplus under the current account fell to US$ 25.5 billion in 2018, with the deficits in the first and second quarters and recovery to a surplus in the third quarter, which shot further up to US$ 141.3 billion in 2019. However, all this has not tipped the overall balance of China's current account. Thank you. 

16:08:56 2020-04-17 

Bloomberg:
In March, foreign-related receipts and payments by banks for customers registered the highest deficit since January 2016. Could you explain why? What was the position of the balance of payments for the first quarter?

16:36:07 2020-04-17 

Wang Chunying:
I'd like to share with you some data for cross-border receipts and payments for March, over which you are concerned. Foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks hit US$ 18.6 billion in surplus in March, while cross-border receipts and payments recorded a deficit of US$ 47.7 billion due to a net outflow of the yuan, especially under portfolio investment, according to our comparative analysis. In March, China posted a net outflow of cross-border funds under equity but a net inflow of funds under bonds. Despite the net outflow of funds from stock markets in March, China has witnessed a net inflow of "northbound" funds again and a stable net outflow of "southbound" funds through Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect since March 24, indicating no sustained and one-way fund outflows in stock markets. As a matter of fact, it is normal that cross-border funds fluctuate in stock markets under external impact, with relative changes in size within a reasonable range.
As for the structure of the current account in the balance of payments for the first quarter that concerns you, relevant data has not been released and some data sources have not been acquired, and therefore the data released just now was estimates based on large projects. Overall, trade in goods will remain in surplus, albeit at a lower level, and trade in services will register deficits in the long term, albeit on the decline. The ultimate judgment will depend on relevant data, but it is highly likely that the current account balance will remain in a reasonable equilibrium. Even if there are deficits, they will not be high. In 2018, for example, the current account registered a deficit of US$ 40.3 billion in the first quarter and of US$ 900 million in the second quarter. However, in the balance of payments, a deficit of US$ 900 million or US$ 40.3 billion will not change the overall direction or trigger heavy outflows of cross-border funds. The current account balance as a percentage of GDP has remained lower than 2% in recent years and stands at 1% now, which denotes a stronger equilibrium. Thank you.

16:36:45 2020-04-17 

People's Daily Overseas Edition:
China's foreign-related businesses have been seriously affected by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. What policies has the SAFE introduced to bolster resumption of work, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)? How have the policies worked? Thank you.

16:50:45 2020-04-17

Wang Chunying:
Thank you for your questions, over which firms are also concerned. Following the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the SAFE has adopted effective measures that have provided a strong boost to epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work. They are highlighted as follows:
First, the SAFE has introduced convenient policies to support epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work. For example, procedures for the payments of foreign exchange for imports related to medical supplies and the receipts of foreign exchange from exports have been further simplified, and financing in connection with epidemic prevention and control has been facilitated. Moreover, for firms in need, limits on external debt can be canceled and online application can be allowed. To ensure normal demands of individuals and businesses for foreign exchange, the SAFE encourages online transactions. It also has supported and guided the China Foreign Exchange Trading System and Shanghai Clearing House to reduce or waive service fees for foreign exchange trading and clearing for relevant institutions in Hubei. As for effects, online handling of external debt across China accounted for 93% from January 27 to March 31, versus 61% in 2019.
Second, the SAFE has deepened reform and opening up in the foreign exchange area to enhance the level of cross-border trade and investment facilitation. In October 2019, the SAFE launched 12 cross-border trade and investment facilitation initiatives. In March 2020, it upped the macro-prudential regulation parameters for full-scale cross-border financing to expand room for seeking external borrowings and make it easy for companies to have more leeway to use overseas funds. On April 14, the SAFE launched eight additional facilitation initiatives to simplify the foreign exchange business. Overall, these initiatives are focused on three aspects. First, stepping up efforts to support foreign trade stability, including expanding pilots for foreign exchange receipts and payments facilitation under trade, facilitating foreign exchange settlement for cross-border e-commerce, and optimizing the way of reporting on foreign exchange for trade in goods. Secondly, increasing cross-border financing facilitation, including rolling out nationwide the reform of receipts and payments facilitation under the capital account, expanding facilitation piloting for external debt to support cross-border financing by high-tech companies, and reforming external debt registration administration for businesses. Thirdly, improving foreign exchange service level, including facilitating use of electronic data interchange (EDI) for foreign exchange businesses. These initiatives can help firms significantly cut time and labor costs. For example, piloting of foreign exchange receipts and payments facilitation for trade can help businesses cut more than 50% of their time costs.
Third, SAFE facilitates trade finance by SMEs using the blockchain service platform for cross-border finance. As of April 7, the blockchain service platform had lent US$ 22.7 billion for receivables financing, and served nearly 3,000 firms, of which SMEs accounted for more than 75%.
Next, we will sort out more facilitation measures that can be introduced to support resumption of work, investment and financing under cross-border trade. We will follow the principles of proactive, gradual and controllable opening up, which means that relevant policies will not be reversed. In addition, we will forestall and defuse risks, a principle that has long been adhered to.

16:51:01 2020-04-17 

CNBC:
For the first question, I'd like to know the trends and outlooks of foreign capital inflows in China. Second, for foreign investors considering adding investments in China, they tend to be concerned about the difficulty to withdraw money. So I wonder what specific measures the SAFE has to protect foreign investors. Thank you.

17:10:37 2020-04-17

Wang Chunying:
As I understand it, your first question is about the recent changes in investing in China for foreign investors and its prospects in China. The other question is about whether they can withdraw their investments.
What changes have occurred to foreign investment in China since the outbreak of the virus? First, medium and long-term foreign funds have kept flowing into China, especially FDI and bond investment for the allocation of renminbi assets over the medium and long term. On the one hand, FDI has stayed stable with its structure optimized. Statistics from the Ministry of Commerce show that foreign capital used by the non-financial sector in the first quarter of this year reached US$ 31.2 billion, representing a year-on-year decline, but foreign capital used by the high-tech service sector rose rapidly, suggesting foreign investors have identified opportunities in economic structural adjustments in China. On the other hand, bond investment has increased for the purpose of allocating renminbi assets in the medium and long term. In the first quarter, foreign investors' net holdings of Chinese bonds hiked to US$ 16.7 billion, up by 48%. Second, in the short term, under the external impact, foreign capital in the stock market has fluctuated slightly in a reasonable range. In the first quarter, global stock markets mostly tumbled, leading to higher risk aversion. Therefore, some foreign investors reduced their investment in stock markets amid the US dollar liquidity tension, which is normal. In the first quarter, foreign investors reduced their net holdings of stocks in China by about US$ 10 billion, with relatively heavier reductions in March. China's stock market is the second largest worldwide by market value, which is US$ 7-8 trillion. US$ 10 billion is just a fraction of the US$ 7-8 trillion and has a minimal impact on the market. As far as capital flows in the stock market are concerned, foreign investors have not kept reducing their holdings and the stock market showed two-way fluctuations. The northbound funds registered a net outflow through Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect in mid-March, but recorded a net inflow in late March. That is why we believe relevant changes in investment have been within a reasonable range.

17:11:01 2020-04-17 

Wang Chunying:
As for the investment outlooks in China, we believe the China market and renminbi assets will remain attractive to foreign capital. It's because China's economic fundamentals sustaining sound economic growth over the long term have not changed and the China market still has strong potential. As China's efforts to prevent and control the COVID-19 epidemic are yielding positive changes, China will play a significant role in boosting global economic growth. As for direct investment, FDI across the world has been in decline over the past four years, while China's utilization of foreign capital has bucked the trend and been rising, keeping China as the second largest investment destination around the world. This shows foreign investors' strong interest in investing in China over the long term. As for bond investment, China's bond yields have been astonishingly high, making China attractive to investors to allocate renminbi assets in the medium and long term. As the stock market shows, China's stock market valuation is relatively low, indicating promising prospects for value investment. For example, China's stock market is less volatile than global stock markets. In the first quarter, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index decreased by 23%, versus 10% in the Shanghai Composite Index. Therefore, the China market is still attractive to foreign investors either, in terms of direct investment, bond investment or stock investment. China is open to foreign investment to share the dividends yielded by China's economic growth.

17:16:34 2020-04-17 

Wang Chunying:
As for capital security you are concerned about, I'd like to share with you some of my ideas. China's current account actually became convertible in 1996, which means that any receipts and payments under the current account that are authentic and comply with regulations can be handled with banks by presenting authentic and effective trading documents. As for the capital account, the China market keeps a high level of openness by the 40 standards set by the International Monetary Fund in seven major categories. And reform has been advanced for investment facilitation. Besides, as I have said just now, China has carried out reforms in a proactive, step-by-step and controllable manner, which means that China will not reverse its reforms. Opened window will not be closed again, as we are often cited as saying. Therefore, there is no need for foreign investors to be worried about. 

17:26:14 2020-04-17 

HK Economic Herald:
The COVID-19 epidemic has put a strain on the liquidity of the US dollar recently, which has not been fully eased yet. As China's outstanding external debt has exceeded US$ 2 trillion, will external debt deleveraging recur under such circumstances? Thank you.

17:26:21 2020-04-17 

Wang Chunying:
China's external debt is now at a low risk of significant deleveraging. This can be explained as follows: First, China's external debt has been growing steadily in recent years. Here is some data for your reference. The outstanding external debt hit US$ 2.0573 trillion by the end of last year, up by US$ 277.4 billion from the historic peak at the end of 2014. Although the figure grew in absolute terms, its growth margin is modest as compared with other indicators like economic growth in recent years. By the end of 2019, the outstanding external debt accounted for 14.3% in GDP for the year, versus 17% as at the end of 2014, indicating the ratio has dropped over 2%. In addition, as the external debt increased, China's external assets have risen in recent years. The ratio of external debt to external assets was 26.7% by the end of 2019, down by 0.1 % year on year and 1% from the level of the end of 2014. This suggests that since deleveraging occurred in 2015 and the beginning of 2016, China's external debt has grown fairly stable, and kept abreast of economic growth and the extent of opening up in China. Moreover, the renminbi exchange rate has stayed stable amid two-way fluctuations and no excessive procyclical leveraging on China's external debt has been observed. Therefore, the risk of significant deleveraging is relatively low.
Second, China's external debt structure has been optimized. For example, external debt denominated in domestic currency accounted for 33% at the end of 2018 and increased by 2% to 35% by the end of 2019. The share of external debt for the medium and long term has grown too, but relatively stable, say, from 35% to 41%. What is more, as the interbank bond market is opened up, foreign investors have bought more bonds in China, which accounted for 8% in China's external debt at the end of 2014 and 26% by the end of 2019. These investors are mainly foreign central banks. These institutions and sovereign wealth funds invest in China's bond market to allocate renminbi assets in the medium and long term. Therefore, they don't pursue short-term gains and their investments are inherently stable. Further, the liability ratio, foreign debt ratio and debt service ratio of China's external debt are all within the internationally recognized security range and much lower than the overall levels of developed and emerging market countries.
As far as market environment is concerned, in 2015 and 2016, when the last round of external debt deleveraging occurred, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked the interest rates, leading to a rise in both the US dollar interest rates and exchange rates. But currently the Fed adopts an easier monetary policy, with the interest rates, short or long-term, trending downward. But the renminbi exchange rate stays stable, so it is not very likely that significant deleveraging of external debt will recur.
The initial data for the first quarter shows that China's registered external debt rose steadily, and foreign investors increased their holdings of Chinese bonds, with no signs of deleveraging. Thank you.

17:26:45 2020-04-17 

Xi Yanchun:
Thank you, Ms. Wang, and thank you all. This is the end of today's press conference.

17:30:11 2020-04-17 

(The original text is available on www.china.com.cn)



The English translation may only be used as a reference. In case a different interpretation of the translated information contained in this website arises, the original Chinese shall prevail.

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