Gain a Deep Understanding of the New Economic Trends in China
—Learning and Implementing Xi Jinping's Ideas on the Economic New Normal
Yi Gang, SAFE Administrator
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, President Xi Jinping has summarized the success stories of China's reform and development, shared many of his thoughts and ideas, and made constructive statements and proposed new requirements, thus enriching and developing the theoretical system of socialism with Chinese characteristics. As we are entering a critical period for economic construction and development in terms of the pace of growth, the structural readjustments, and the stimulus policies, Xi proposed that we should adapt to the new normal state featuring the characteristics of the current development stage of the Chinese economy and remain calm while implementing the new strategies. This idea is of great theoretical value and of guiding significance to deepen the economic institutional reform, promote sustainable and healthy economic development, and achieve the two centennial goals (namely, to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects when the Communist Party of China celebrates its centennial in 2021, and to turn China into a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, and harmonious when the People's Republic of China celebrates its centennial in 2049) and achieves the Chinese dream of the great renewal of the Chinese nation.
Fully understand the grounds for the statement that China's economy is entering a critical period of slower growth, deepening structural readjustments, and absorption of the stimulus policies
With an accurate understanding of the overall picture of China's economic growth, the CPC Central Committee led by Secretary General Xi Jinping has stated that in the long term China will see sound fundamentals in its economic and social development, but it is now facing a critical period as its economy is shifting from high-speed growth to mid-to-high-speed growth, its structural readjustments are under great pressures, and the preliminary stimulus policies are being absorbed. This statement shows that the CPC Central Committee is willing to face up to the reform and development challenges and is able to identify the principal contradictions and key links in economic development. Fully understanding the grounds for this statement is a prerequisite for delivering good performance in our economic work.
The economic laws determine China's shift to slower economic growth. China's GDP has sustained an astonishing annual average growth rate of nearly 10 percent for more than thirty years since implementation of the reform and opening up, and our economic aggregates reached RMB 56.88 trillion in 2013. As the world's second-largest economy with huge economic aggregates, China is finding that it is difficult to maintain high-speed growth due to the constraints of production factors. Take labor factors as an example. China's population structure and supply and demand for labor have fundamentally changed. The number and share of the labor force dropped for the first time in 2012, and the aging population will continue to grow, making it difficult for China to achieve two-digit growth. International experience shows that economies decelerate to varying extents after reaching a certain stage. Japan and South Korea, for example, witnessed 23 and 36 years of high-rate growth after World War II, with their GDPs growing at an annual average rate of 9.7 percent and 8.02 percent respectively, but then their economies slowed down by nearly one-half. Facing an economic slowdown, we must thoroughly study and follow the economic laws and ensure that the range of adjustments is appropriate for improving the quality and efficiency of economic development.
Accelerating the strategic readjustments of the economic structure is a very necessary approach to respond to the profound changes in the economic conditions. The manufacturing industry has long been the engine of China's economic growth and has played an important role in China's economic miracle. But the development model of China's manufacturing industry is relatively extensive, leading to many problems, such as a serious overcapacity. The capacity utilization of manufacturing companies in the first three quarters of 2013 was at the lowest level since 2006 and lower than the internationally recognized normal level. In particular, the capacity utilization of the main products in the iron and steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, coke, shipping, photovoltaic, and so forth industries was lower than 50 percent. The overcapacity in the manufacturing industry led to decreases in the returns on capital and the marginal output. Moreover, the extensive development of the manufacturing industry has also caused many resource, ecological, and environmental problems, such as high energy consumption per unit of GDP, serious water, air, and soil pollution, and deteriorations in the ecological environment. If we are not determined and courageous today, we will pay a bigger price tomorrow. Given the profound changes in the development conditions, we must accelerate the strategic readjustments in the economic structure and combine economic growth with structural readjustments, improvements in the people's lives, and the construction of an ecological civilization to achieve sustainable development.
Absorbing the preliminary stimulus policies is a prerequisite for safeguarding China's economic and financial security. To respond to the global financial crisis, China introduced a package of stimulus policies during the past few years, which contributed greatly to China's sound economic growth and the recovery of the world economy. However, these policies also had some negative effects, such as financial capital being off to a virtual reality, too many company debts, and the accumulation of potential risks in some areas and links, such as local financing platforms. Developing a high liability ratio and a high leverage ratio will compromise our future and may potentially endanger sustainable economic development. Therefore, we must take the initiative in economic development and properly handle the relationship between ensuring growth and guarding against risks to improve the efficiency and quality of economic development.
Accurately understand the meaning of the economic new normal in China
"China's development is entering a period of strategic importance. We must consolidate confidence to adapt to the new normal state featuring the characteristics of the current development stage of the Chinese economy and remain calm while making strategies," said Xi. This is a scientific analysis of the long-term economic trends in China, based on, among other things, a comprehensive analysis of China's economy during a period when economic growth is slowing down, structural readjustments are under great pressures, and the preliminary stimulus policies are being absorbed. We should accurately understand the meaning of the economic new normal, acquire good knowledge about the new economic trends, and promote the economy, reform, and development well to make sure that we will complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020 and go on to fulfill further goals.
China's economy is shifting from high-speed growth to mid-to-high-speed growth. After undergoing two-digit growth over the past thirty-plus years, China's economy is now gradually slowing down to mid-to-high-speed growth, which is an important sign of the new normal economic state. Such a speed is sustainable. "We must understand the relationship between sustainable and healthy development and GDP growth in an all-round way," stressed Xi. Ending the blind pursuit of high-speed economic growth is favorable for the optimization of resource allocations and for full utilization of resources, and for improvements in the quality and efficiency of economic development to ensure that the people can share in the fruits of the economic development. An economic slowdown means relatively slow economic growth compared with the previous high-speed growth, but this speed is still much higher than that in the developed economies and many emerging markets and this growth is more comprehensive, coordinated, and sustainable, featuring a more stable and rational structure. It is foreseeable that China's economic growth will contribute even more to global economic growth in the coming decade.
The leading position of the manufacturing industry in the industrial structure is being shifted to the services industry. With its level being a key sign that measures the level of economic development in a modern society, the services industry is an important sector of the Chinese economy. But China's services industry was relatively immature in the past. The added value of this industry accounted for 46 percent of China's GDP in 2013, which outperformed that of the manufacturing industry for the first time, but it was still far behind the 70 percent which is the typical percentage of the services industry in GDP in the developed countries, indicating the boosting of the services industry on China's economic growth has yet to be unleashed. Under the new normal economic state, the position of the services industry in the industrial structure will further pick up. Since what we need is an economic growth speed that ensures improvements in the people's lives and full employment, the development of the services industry that can provide more job opportunities than the manufacturing industry is conducive to achieving the goal of full employment, enriching the provision of daily necessities, improving the people's lives, and achieving the growth of humanity.
The development concept is being transformed from one-sided pursuit of GDP growth to humanitarian and environmental protection. Under the new normal economic state, efforts will be made to expand the reforms and to promote development based on the people-first philosophy and the principle of serving the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the people rather than to seek GDP growth as the ultimate goal. "A good ecological environment is the fairest public good that is most beneficial to general well-being," Xi pointed out. The central government has been implementing an innovation-driven development strategy in recent years and regards energy-savings and emissions reductions as restrictive indicators for economic and social development to promote green, circular, and low-carbon development. People-first economic development means equal access to basic public services in urban and rural areas will be promoted at a faster pace, with an elimination of the urban-rural dual economic structure. China's urbanization has been accelerated in recent years. Its urban population exceeded its rural population for the first time at the end of 2011, accounting for 53.7 percent of the total population at the end of 2013, nearly equal to the world’s average. More and more migrant workers have access to basic urban public services. Meanwhile, new rural areas are being built, urban and rural development is becoming more balanced, and gaps between the rural and urban areas are being narrowed, indicating the fruits of development are being shared by more people in a more equitable way.
Promote stable economic growth under the new normal state by deepening the reforms
The critical period featuring slower economic growth, deepened structural readjustments and absorption of the stimulus policies, and the economic new normal are both an opportunity and a challenge. "To meet the people's new expectations, we must consolidate confidence in the reforms and promote the reform and opening up with more political courage and wisdom and more effective measures and methods," Xi stressed. During this critical period of strategic importance, we should remove the institutional and structural contradictions in economic development by deepening the reforms, give the market a decisive role in allocating resources by promoting the reforms in key areas and links, and allow the government to play a better role in the promotion of the sustainable and healthy development of the Chinese economy.
Carrying out market-oriented reforms. First, streamline administration and delegate power to lower levels. Efforts should be made to minimize permissions, approvals, and qualification evaluations and to motivate market players to start businesses so as to continuously vitalize economic transformation. Second, accelerate improvements in the modern market system. We should develop open and transparent market rules and unified market access rules by formulating a negative list. We should deepen the reform of the factors market and establish a price system that can reflect scarcities and the supply-demand relationship to combine improving the efficiency of resource allocations and promoting economic growth. Third, energize micro units. We should ensure that diverse forms of ownership participate in competition in an open, fair, and just way and we should encourage non-public ownership to move into the services sector and high-technology areas. Fourth, expand internal and external opening up. We should promote bidirectional opening up of the capital market to increase the convertibility of cross-border capital and financial trade in good order. We should combine "inviting in" and "going out" to encourage foreign capital to participate in domestic M&As and integration, ease restrictions on domestic residents' overseas investments and establish the principal positions of companies and individuals in overseas investments.
Carrying out innovation-oriented reforms. First, deepen the education reform to accelerate accumulation of human resources. We should make full use of the role of human resources as a source of innovations to a lay a solid foundation for the upgrading of the traditional industries and the development of industries such as new generation IT, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing and then to improve labor productivity and total factor productivity. Second, improve the systems and mechanisms of technology innovation. We should deepen the reform of technology systems and establish an open and transparent evaluation mechanism for national technological resource management and projects. We should uphold market-oriented technology innovations, strengthen the principal position of companies in technology innovations, and improve venture capital investment mechanisms and business models to promote the transformation of technology innovations into the dynamism of economic development. Third, promote the integration of technology and finance. We should increase the use and protection of intellectual property rights to make full use of the capital market to support innovations and the starting of businesses.
Carrying out sustainability-oriented reforms. First, accelerate the building of mechanisms and systems for sustainable economic development. We should build a scientific indicator system, an assessment system, and a monitoring system for energy savings and emissions reductions, implement a target responsibility system regarding energy savings and emissions reductions and stress the restrictive roles of the indicators. Second, develop a green and circular economy. We should promote low-carbon technology, develop new and renewable energies, and enhance prevention and control of water, air, and solid waste pollution and traffic congestion. Third, protect the ecological environment. We should actively respond to global warming and continue to push ahead with ecological projects, such as natural forest protection, conversion of farmland to forests, and conversion of farmland to pastures, to promote coordinated development of the economy and the environment.
Carrying out reforms that benefit all. First, build a reasonable and orderly income allocation pattern. We should adjust the distribution pattern of the national income by further increasing the proportion of labor remuneration in the initial distribution to synchronously enhance labor remuneration and labor productivity. We should improve the minimum wage and wage payment guarantee systems to bridge the income gaps between the rural and urban areas, between regions, and between industries. Second, establish a fair and sustainable social security system. We should integrate the basic pension and medical insurance systems for rural and urban residents, coordinate the minimum standard of living scheme for rural and urban residents, and accelerate the building of a basic public services system for all people. We should learn lessons from other countries regarding welfare policies and build a social security system that is appropriate for the level and stage of social and economic development in China, while avoiding welfare problems caused by overly high welfare or a failure to guarantee a minimum standard of living due to excessively low welfare.
(The original text was released on page 7 of the People's Daily, dated November 3, 2014)
