Special Topic IV

I. China has made active progress in terms of strengthening and improving supervision of cross-border capital flows

In recent years, the foreign exchange authorities has been adhering to the risk limits and have continuously strengthened and improved supervision of cross-border capital flows. While adhering to balanced management, the foreign exchange authorities focused on guarding against hot money inflows, made it a priority to slow down the rapid increase in the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks and foreign exchange reserves, combined thinning and blocking measures, focused on priorities, simultaneously took numerous measures, and carried out comprehensive policies in order to guard against the impact of cross-border capital flows. This mainly included the following:

First, studying, formulating, and timely applying the pre-arranged policies to cope with large-scale cross-border capital inflows. In 2008, the Regulations on Foreign Exchange Administration were revised and implemented, providing legal basis for strengthening supervision of cross-border capital flows. In 2009 and 2010, the pre-arranged policies for coping with unusual outflows and inflows of cross-border capital respectively were formulated. In November 2010 and March 2011, the foreign exchange authorities applied the pre-arranged policies for coping with unusual inflows of cross-border capital, strengthened administration of the foreign exchange business of the banks’ foreign exchange settlement and sales positions, foreign exchange collections and settlement for export, and short-term external debt, and in 2011 further adjusted downward the total scale of the short-term external debt quotas of domestic financial institutions.

Second, giving play to foreign exchange inspection methods to rigorously crack down on the arbitrage capital such as hot money. In recent years, the foreign exchange authorities have improved foreign exchange inspection methods and the accuracy and effectiveness of cracking down on hot money. In accordance with the idea of seizing the big and freeing the small, the special inspections on foreign exchange settlement of capital and short-term external debt carried out by the foreign exchange authorities focused on financial institutions and large enterprises. The foreign exchange authorities increased their efforts to circulate information on the irregular activities of market players and as well as information on punishments for irregular activities by some banks, enterprises, and individuals. From 2007 to 2011, the foreign exchange authorities investigated a total of 15,000 cases involved in activities in violation of the foreign exchange laws and regulations and imposed a total of RMB 1.27 billion in administrative fines. In particular, the foreign exchange authorities cooperated with the public security bodies to crack down on a total of 210 cases involving illegal banks, the illegal sale and purchase of foreign exchange, and on-line foreign exchange speculation. Involving an amount in excess of RMB 100 billion, more than 1,000 suspects were apprehended and a total of RMB 160 million in administrative fines was imposed.

Third, adhering to the combining of thinning and blocking measures to guide the orderly flow of cross-border capital. While guarding against the inflow of hot money, the foreign exchange authorities continuously simplified and finally cancelled the compulsory foreign exchange settlement and sales system and encouraged  foreign exchange purchases and payments with authentic demands for trade and investment. In 2010, the reform of the verification and writing-off system of foreign exchange payments for imports was carried out, making it unnecessary for most of the complying enterprises to handle on-site verification and writing-off procedures for their normal business of foreign exchange payments for imports, significantly reducing the operating costs for the banks and enterprises; a pilot program for overseas deposits of export revenue was launched to encourage enterprises to deposit export revenue overseas and to meet the normal demands of market players to hold and utilize foreign exchange. In 2011, the policy on overseas deposits of export revenue was generalized nationwide, and a pilot reform of the verification and writing-off system for imports and exports was launched. The foreign exchange authorities supported the “Going Out” strategy, lifted limits on the amount of foreign exchange purchased for overseas investments, and allowed outward remittances for early stage expenses for overseas investments.

Fourth, improving the capability to analyze and supervise cross-border capital flows in domestic and foreign currency. The foreign exchange authorities strengthened statistics, monitoring, and early warning on the balance of payments, carried out statistics and monitoring of cross-border capital flows in domestic and foreign currency, established a comprehensive statistical system for the banks’ trade financing, and established and improved the monitoring and early warning system for the balance of payments. The foreign exchange authorities improved transparency by providing a comprehensive overview of the cross-border capital flow situation, circulated  information on punishments for irregular activities in the handling of foreign exchange business by some banks, enterprises, and individuals, further deterred activities in violation of the laws and regulations, and correctly guided expectations. The foreign exchange authorities gave play to cross-departmental synergies, strengthened information sharing and policy coordination, and created a synergy to suppress the inflow of hot money.

In general, the adjustment of the foreign exchange administration policy focusing on reducing the surplus played an active role in guarding against the impact of cross-border capital flows and safeguarding the economic and financial security of the country. From the second half of 2011, in particular the fourth quarter, the foreign exchange situation in China exhibited a noteworthy change, and the RMB exchange rate approached an equilibrium level. Due to early insight, the foreign exchange authorities required the banks to increase foreign exchange positions in advance, which not only relieved the pressures on the central bank to purchase foreign exchange for that period and reduced the currency mismatch risks for banks, but also made the process go smoothly such since the fourth quarter of 2011 the banks have proactively increased their positions and have avoided any significant market fluctuations that might have occurred.

II. The new situation and the new stage raised the requirements for supervision of cross-border capital flows in domestic and foreign currency

In accordance with increasing the level of opening to the outside and facilitating trade and investment, the pilot cross-border RMB trade settlement has continuously expanded and we have already reached a high level of economic opening. Comprehensively affected by such factors as changes in the economic situation both at home and abroad, the transformation of the pattern of economic development in China, and the fact that macro-control policies are gradually in place, China’s cross-border capital flows in domestic and foreign currency displayed new characteristics, raising the requirements for cross-border capital management during the next stage.

(1) The balance of payments approaching a basic equilibrium means that balanced management of cross-border capital flows needs to be strengthened. The proportion of the current account surplus to GDP is an important indicator measuring external imbalances. Since the international financial crisis, the situation of China ’s current account surplus has been improving. According to preliminary estimates, in 2011 the proportion of the current account surplus to GDP will be further reduced to around 3 percent, a decrease of 7 percent since its historic high in 2007. The rapid momentum in the increase of China’s foreign exchange reserves has slowed down. At the end of 2011, China ’s foreign exchange reserves totaled about USD 3.2 trillion, an increase of USD 330 billion compared with the end of the previous year, with the increment decreasing by USD 110 billion compared with the same period of the last year. In general, the balance of payments approaching a basic equilibrium is a type of active change that is consistent with the macro-control direction. However, facing the present complicated and volatile economic and financial environments both at home and abroad, there are still uncertainties in the cross-border capital flow situation. This will require that the foreign exchange authorities accelerate the transformation of the concepts and methods of supervising cross-border capital flows in accordance with the requirements for balanced management, control the two gates for inflows and outflows of cross-border capital, comprehensively apply the economic, legal, and necessary administrative means to continuously improve supervision of  cross-border capital flows, guard against massive cross-border capital flows, and safeguard the economic and financial security of China.

(2) The increase in the level of financial opening-up in China means that the transformation of the supervisory mode for cross-border capital flows needs to be accelerated. Currently, China is a major economy with a high level of opening-up. In 2009, affected by the spread of the international financial crisis, the total scale of the balance of payments dropped to USD 4 trillion, and the scale of such major trade items as trade in goods and direct investments dropped. In 2010, China ’s foreign economic activities recovered to the same level as that before the financial crisis, the total scale of the balance of payments of the year reached USD 5.6 trillion, again a record high. As China ’s foreign economic exchange expands and foreign-related trade and investment become increasingly active, various economic entities will raise their requirements for relaxing the restrictions on cross-border capital flows, making full use of domestic and international markets and resources. In order to adapt to the development of the new situation, while facilitating trade and investment and steadily promoting convertibility under the capital account, the foreign exchange authorities need to accelerate the transformation of the foreign exchange administration mode by integrating the data and system resources and strengthening the monitoring of cross-border capital flows on the basis of the individual economic entities, to formulate pre-arranged policies for coping with the risks of bidirectional flows of cross-border capital; by utilizing the tools for pre-adjustments and fine adjustments, to reduce the pressures of massive cross-border capital flows; while not leaving any supervisory blind spots, to carry out classified management and to improve the effectiveness of the supervision of cross-border capital flows.

(3) The expanding scale of RMB cross-border capital flows means that the capability to carry out fully covered monitoring and analysis of the cross-border capital flows in domestic and foreign currency needs to be further improved. In recent years, the confidence of the international market and the demands for RMB have been increasing, resulting in the scale of cross-border RMB capital flows promptly expanding. In 2011, the amount of RMB cross-border settlements exceeded RMB 2 trillion, a fourfold increase compared with the same period of the last year, and the proportion of RMB cross-border trade in cross-border capital flows increased notably. In light of this new situation, the foreign exchange authorities need to keep in mind the long-term interests, improve the system and mechanism for the supervision of  cross-border capital flows in domestic and foreign currency, strengthen the monitoring, analysis, and early warning of cross-border RMB capital flows, strengthen information communication and supervisory cooperation between the regulatory departments, and create a new synergy.

III. The main ideas of the supervisory framework for cross-border capital flows in domestic and foreign currency during the next stage

The establishment and improvement of the supervisory framework for cross-border capital flows in domestic and foreign currency is a long-term process. For the next period, the foreign exchange authorities should focus on grasping well the following important aspects:

First, strengthening analysis of the situation and improving the capability for scientific judgments. The foreign exchange authorities should keep a sharp eye on and closely follow changes in the situation in cross-border capital flows of domestic and foreign currency, place high priority on certain emerging and tendentious problems, deeply study the channels and transmission mechanisms that affect cross-border receipts and payments, search for the core indicators that are highly related to the trends in the cross-border capital flows and establish good predictability and make the judgments on cross-border capital flows more scientific and more accurate.

Second, strengthening policy reserves and formulating well pre-arranged policies for coping with the risks of bidirectional flows of cross-border capital. The foreign exchange authorities should adhere to balanced management of cross-border capital flows, improve and enrich the pre-arranged policies that guard against massive net inflows of cross-border capital, do a good job in terms of implementing reserves that guard against central outflows of cross-border capital, and make supervisory policies relevant and forward-looking.

Third, adhering to balanced management and focusing on guarding against unusual cross-border capital flows. The foreign exchange authorities should implement the concept of balanced management on the basis of promoting the facilitation of trade and investment, actively explore new ideas, new tools, and new mechanisms for supervising cross-border capital flows, comprehensively apply the economic means, legal means, and necessary administrative means, and limit the space for speculation and arbitrage. Furthermore, the foreign exchange authorities should begin by straightening out the relations between foreign exchange supply and demand, accelerate the cultivation and development of the foreign exchange market, improve the market-making mechanism of market-makers, enhance the capability of the foreign exchange market in terms of self-regulation and self-balancing, and give full play to the fundamental role of market mechanisms for the reasonable allocation of foreign exchange resources.

Fourth, optimizing the system and mechanisms, and improving the capability to cope with the impact of cross-border capital flows. The foreign exchange authorities should place high priority on the development of the system and mechanisms for supervision of the cross-border capital flows in domestic and foreign currency, and should strengthen supervisory cooperation. The foreign exchange authorities should establish a transmission mechanism for enterprises, banks, and individuals to improve policy effectiveness. The foreign exchange authorities should strengthen guidance of financial institutions, pay attention to giving full play to the role of the designated foreign exchange banks in the conduct of policy, and improve the capability to control the foreign exchange receipts and payments of economic entities. The foreign exchange authorities should make good use of the inspection methods, maintain tough measures against illegal and irregular funds, such as hot money, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities in regulatory areas, such as underground banks, increase efforts to disclose information on illegal and irregular activities, and improve the deterrent effect against illegal and irregular cross-border capital flows.